Bundesliga 2022/23 outright predictions & tips

A clash between Europa League winners Eintracht Frankfurt and ten-time consecutive league winners Bayern Munich will be the first of many storylines set to unfold throughout the 60th Bundesliga campaign, that is not to mention the fact that this year is like no other with the small matter of a World Cup to settle slap bang in the middle of the season.

As for the team changes this season, Schalke and Werder Bremen make an immediate return from the second-tier while we will be without the fifth-worst ever Bundesliga side Greuther Furth following their relegation alongside Arminia Bielefeld.

Bundesliga 2022/23 outright predictions & tips

Borussia Dortmund to win (w/out Bayern Munich) at 11/8

When backing in the outright markets for the Bundesliga, it is simply a must to go in the without Bayern Munich market, as the value is non-existent if backing an 11th consecutive Bayern title success at around 1/5.

As for the contenders for the ‘best of the rest’ crown, we have the likes of Bayer Leverkusen who have strengthened with rising Czech Republic starlet Adam Hlozek, they finished in a comfortable third place last term but they could be outgunned by others in the search for an unlikely second-placed finish.

RB Leipzig finished fourth last season but that in itself was a tight run thing as just three points separated them from Union Berlin and Freiburg in fifth and sixth respectively. The Red Bulls have lost a host of talent over the summer, while the biggest incoming is central midfielder Xaver Schlager for £12m from Wolfsburg. We expect that they will be battling it out for a top-four finish yet again after winning their first ever major honours last term in the DFB Pokal.

With the rest of the likely suspects covered, we turn our attention to Borussia Dortmund. The perennial bridesmaids may be favourites in this market but we believe that is for good reason, the loss of Erling Haaland was always an inevitability but with the likes of Champions League record breaker Seb Haller, sturdy centre-half Niklas Sule and Europe’s highest scoring U21 player Karim Adeyemi joining the cause, they aren’t short of talent to push Bayern all the way.

In the aftermath of Marco Rose’s short lived tenure in the Dortmund hotseat, Edin Terzic has returned for the 2022/23 campaign.

Terzic knows this club inside out, he has had differing roles with BVB over the last 12 years and he averaged two points per game across his 32 games in caretaker charge last time around (W20, D4, L8). As such, we predict that he could be the man to keep Bayern right on their toes this season.

Eintracht Frankfurt to finish in the top 4 at 7/2

After winning the Europa League in spectacular fashion last season, the Eagles are looking to take flight in the new campaign as they eye a top-four finish.

The summer has been kind to Frankfurt in terms of transfer activity, they have kept hold of their big stars at the time of writing, although it is likely that the talismanic Filip Kostic will have departed by the time the season starts if reports are to be believed.

In terms of incomings, Frankfurt have spent handsomely to keep Jens Petter Hague at the club on a permanent basis while Lucas Alario joins from Bayer Leverkusen, the Argentine hitman has scored 42 times in the Bundesliga and can help the Eagles soar to new heights in this campaign.

The bookmakers’ favourites to finish in the first four are Bayern Munich, Dortmund, Leipzig and Leverkusen. However, we are willing to take a chance on at least one of those four teams slipping up to allow Frankfurt to get in the mix at a rather attractive 7/2, perhaps an early exit from the Champions League will help them in that respect.

Cologne to be relegated at 6/1

It may seem like a bit of a curveball to throw a relegation prediction out for a side who recorded their best Bundesliga finish in five years (7th) last season as they qualified for the play-off round to get into the Europa Conference League group stage.

While that performance was nothing short of special, Cologne are a team that often blow hot and cold, they most recently played in the second-tier in 2018/19 and have suffered five relegations from the top-flight since the turn of the century, so they are no strangers to flip-flopping between the top two flights of the German pyramid.

As for their transfers, the rumour mill carries on producing gossip about whether talismanic forward Anthony Modeste will stay or go, while they have not brought in any marquee signings to replace him should he decide to leave.

To signify how bad a loss that would be, Modeste scored 20 of Cologne’s league goals last term, a massive 38% of the total team haul. Even should he stay, at 34 years old, the Frenchman’s potency is likely to drop off sooner rather than later.

Incoming striker Sargis Adamyan has never scored more than five goals in a Bundesliga campaign while Steffen Tigges may miss the start of the campaign with a broken ankle, so their potency could be set to take a big hit this time around, that is not to mention the added pressure of extra European fixtures.

All in all, we think that the value is poor on the shorter priced sides in the relegation market, with the promoted sides looking good value to avoid the drop.

We are going for the Billy Goats to get gobbled up at a cracking price of 6/1, though there are a lot of moving parts which justify this price, namely Cologne’s European performance, Modeste’s contract situation and the effectiveness of their new recruits.