Champions League Final betting trends with 26/1 Bet Builder
Content Editor at Free Super Tips, Alex was born in the shadow of Old Trafford and is an avid Man Utd fan. After graduating from university he combined his love of football, writing and betting to join FST and now closely follows goings-on in all of the top European leagues.
We are just days away from the biggest club game in world football and all eyes are trained on Paris as we prepare for the Champions League Final.
Liverpool and Real Madrid have some 19 European Cup and Champions League wins to their name and between them they have won 76% of their finals, but somebody has to lose on Saturday and I have been delving into Champions League Finals of yesteryear to dig out some interesting trends to help you build the perfect bet.
26/1 Champions League Final trends Bet Builder
To lift the trophy – Spanish excellence could prevail again
England vs Spain has become something of a staple in European competitions over the last decade as the two countries continue to dominate. Spanish teams (6) and English teams (3) have won nine of the last ten Champions League titles and on Saturday we will see another familiar face lift the trophy.
Liverpool are priced up as favourites at a shade over evens on Saturday and that alone has been worth a lot in the past. In fact, eight of the last ten Champions League Finals have been won by the pre-match favourites.
The only team to defy the odds in the last decade? Reigning champions Chelsea, who were underdogs going into both last year’s final and their penalty-shootout victory in 2011/12.
Six of these eight favourite wins were settled inside the regulation 90 minutes and each of the last five finals have been won in normal time. Interestingly, the final has gone to extra-time seven times since the turn of the millennium but has only been won in the additional 30 minutes once, further strengthening the case for scrapping extra-time entirely.
While the pre-match odds do suggest Liverpool are on for the win, there are some compelling reasons for backing the underdog in Paris.
Real Madrid have won 81% of their European Cup and Champions League Finals and no manager has won the Champions League more times than Carlo Ancelotti (3). Not only that, but Spanish sides have faced non-Spanish opposition 16 times in the Champions League Final since the rebrand and have won every single one of them, while Real Madrid haven’t lost a final in this competition since 1981.
What to bet – Real Madrid double chance
Goals – Both teams to find the net
While the Champions League semi-finals often throw up some all-time classics, the final is seen to be a much more tense affair as the pressure of falling at the final hurdle builds.
At times this has resulted in some rather anti-climactic affairs but, while each of the last three finals have been won to nil, the previous eight had all seen both teams get on the scoresheet.
There has been a respectable average of 2.6 goals per final over the last decade and four of them have seen at least three goals scored, including the last Champions League Final clash between these sides in 2017/18.
As far as the scoreline goes, 1-1 (5) has been the most common scoreline after 90 minutes since 2000, followed closely by 2-1 (4).
What to bet – Both teams to score
Goalscorers – Benzema can sink Liverpool again
Saturday’s Champions League Final is absolutely packed with experience and there are likely to be five players starting who have previously scored in a Champions League Final.
Only Cristiano Ronaldo (140) and Lionel Messi (125) have scored more goals in the competition than Karim Benzema (86), with Real Madrid’s striker tied with Robert Lewandowski in third. He has scored 15 of those in this campaign alone and a hat-trick on Saturday would see him break Cristiano Ronaldo’s record of 17 goals in a single season.
Benzema has history, too. He scored the opener for Real Madrid in their 2017/18 win over Liverpool, while Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mane, Marcos Asensio and Casemiro are the other four final goalscorers likely to start on Saturday.
Interestingly, 65% of Champions League Final goals over the last decade have been scored by attackers, while only four goals have been scored by defenders in this period and three of those came in the same game as Sergio Ramos, Marcelo and Diego Godin netted in Los Blancos’ 4-1 triumph over their Madrid rivals.
What to bet – Karim Benzema to score anytime
Goal times – First-half goal on the cards
Those of you hoping for a frenetic start to Saturday’s game could be sorely disappointed, with just two of the last ten finals seeing a goal scored inside the first ten minutes. On average, the first goal has been scored in the 37th minute and six of these ten finals have seen a first-half goal, with five of those also following up with at least one goal in the second half.
Whoever bags the first goal has history on their side, too. The first team to score in the Champions League Final has gone on to win eight of the last ten instalments, while both comebacks – Real Madrid in 2013/14 and Chelsea in 2011/12 – were taken to extra time. There hasn’t been a comeback in normal time since Arsenal’s late capitulation to Barcelona in 2006.
What to bet – Goal scored in both halves
Cards – Lawless Los Blancos to keep the referee busy
The Champions League Final is a tense affair and it is not uncommon to see tensions boil over, and that fact is reinforced by an average of 5.3 cards per game over the last decade of finals. That being said, this figure is somewhat skewed by two huge double-figure card hauls, both of which involved Real Madrid.
There were ten cards, including the only sending off in the last ten years, in Real’s 4-1 win over Juventus in 2017 and a massive 12 bookings handed out in the Madrid derby in 2014.
While Real Madrid tend to get stuck in when the final comes around – they have been carded 15 times in their four Champions League Finals since 2011 – Liverpool are less inclined to get into trouble. Jurgen Klopp’s side have picked up just one booking in their two finals in this period.
What to bet – Real Madrid over 3.5 cards
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