Euro 2020 outright tips update for Last 16

The Euro 2020 Group Stage ended with a bang on Wednesday night as we enjoyed the most entertaining evening of football to date as 19 goals were scored across four games, including a couple of crucial last-gasp goals, four penalties and two own goals.

When the final whistle blew on a breathless quartet of fixtures our attentions instantly turned to the next phase of the tournament. 24 teams have been whittled down to 16 and now the real fun can begin.

We provided you with all our pre-tournament outright tips here and some dark horse selections here and the break in play seemed like the perfect opportunity to look back on these selections and assess some of the favourites as we head into the knockout rounds.

FST’s Euro 2020 pre-tournament predictions

France

Tipped at 9/2

Now: 4/1

It’s not exactly been the scintillating, world-beating performances many expected from the pre-tournament favourites so far but France still look like they have plenty of gears left to go through and at 4/1 they still look a decent price.

The draw against Hungary is a slightly concerning sign but it’s worth remembering that they only scored three group stage goals en route to winning the World Cup in 2018 and many tournament triumphs have been built on the back of rather underwhelming Group Stage campaigns.

Les Bleus still have by far the most talented squad in the tournament and they remain my favourites to lift the trophy

Still worth backing? Yes

Italy

Tipped at 11/1

Now: 6/1

I tipped Italy as outsiders just before their final warm-up game against Czech Republic and that 4-0 thrashing saw Europe sit up and take notice of Roberto Mancini’s side.

Their odds were slashed to 9/1 in the days after and their perfect Group Stage performance has seen them backed in to 6/1 – second favourites behind France. They have scored seven and conceded none so far and while they haven’t been truly tested yet it’s hard not to be impressed by The Azzurri.

The only concern is their difficult path to the final. Their Round of 16 tie against Austria should pose little problem, but after that they will come up against Belgium or Portugal and, should they get through that, a semi-final clash with France could await.

Still worth backing? Yes

Denmark

Tipped at 28/1

Now: 18/1

It would have been a travesty if Denmark didn’t make it through to the knockout stages. They lost 1-0 to Finland in extremely difficult circumstances and deserved far more than a 2-1 defeat to Belgium in matchday two. Fortunately for them, they turned on the style against Russia and earned themselves a spot in the favourable side of the bracket.

I can see them getting past Wales on Saturday and I certainly wouldn’t be surprised to see them reach the semi-finals. They won the xG count in all three of their group games and only Netherlands, Spain and Portugal generated more xG than them in the Group Stage.

Still worth backing? Yes

Ukraine

Tipped at 50/1

Now: 80/1

Another team enjoying the more favourable side of the Euro 2020 bracket, Ukraine have drifted out to 80/1 since we tipped them after a couple of lacklustre performances.

They looked good against North Macedonia but they were very poor in their defeats to Netherlands and Austria. Their game against Sweden will be a tight one, but I can’t see them making it past Germany or England in the quarter-finals.

Still worth backing? No

What about the other favourites?

England

Odds – 13/2

The fans and media may be on Gareth Southgate’s back about the lack of attacking fluidity but there’s no denying that tournament wins are built on strong defences and zero goals conceded in three games is a promising sign.

England’s placement in the more favourable side of the draw gives them a relatively clean run to the final, with Tuesday’s Round of 16 tie with Germany perhaps the biggest challenge. Expect odds to be slashed if England make it past their old rivals.

Germany

Odds – 7/1

Which Germany side will turn up at Wembley on Tuesday? Will it be the one that tore Portugal apart on matchday two or the one that couldn’t manage to beat Hungary in front of a Munich crowd?

Like England, it’s their draw into the more favourable side of the bracket that has allowed their odds to shorten but I still think they’re too short. Let’s not forget, they were just six minutes from being eliminated at the Group Stage for the second consecutive major tournament on Wednesday night.

Spain

Odds – 15/2

I’m not buying any Spain hype. They may have sparked into life and put five past one of the worst sides in the tournament but their draws against Sweden and Poland showed that they lack something and that vacuum will come back to haunt them against the better sides.

They should be able to make it past Croatia but a potential quarter-final tie with France could see their tournament ended.

Belgium

Odds – 8/1

Three wins from three and seven goals scored certainly looks impressive from Belgium but there are signs that this golden generation could go unrewarded again this year.

Defensively they looked atrocious against Denmark and the only reason they kept clean sheets against Russia and Finland was because of their opponents’ lack of attacking threat. Denmark could have been riding off into the sunset before half-time if they were a little more clinical and I can see teams like Portugal, Italy or France having a field day going at their ageing back three.

Netherlands

Odds – 9/1

One of the surprise packages at the tournament, Netherlands look a good price to have a run at the trophy. They have generated more xG (7.6) than any other team at Euro 2020 and while they are yet to be truly tested they have the advantage of being drawn on the easier side of the bracket.

They should get past Czech Republic fairly easily and I fancy them against Wales or Denmark in the quarter-finals. The semi-final will be their first real test and at 9/1 they look worth backing.

Portugal

Odds – 10/1

Portugal manager Fernando Santos was urging his side forward in the closing stages against France, knowing that a win would see his side avoid Belgium in the Round of 16. His players didn’t heed his advice though and we find Portugal priced at 10/1, out from 9/1 at the start of the tournament.

They’re a hard side to pin down. They conceded six goals across two games against Germany and France but when you have Cristiano Ronaldo spearheading your attack anything is possible. Ultimately, I think their tough run to the final will stop them from successfully defending their crown.

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