Home Heroes Long Haul: 52/1 Accumulator for this week
Before becoming a Sports Journalist for Free Super Tips, Aaron spent three years studying Sports Journalism at the University of Sunderland while taking in the Black Cats' 'glory years' under Martin O'Neill. Now back in Northern Ireland he turns niche stats into predictions for FST, while he's one of the few people on this island who is equally comfortable at Windsor Park and the Aviva.
With December underway, this week brings a bumper Premier League schedule along with a busy slate of games across the EFL and in Europe.
I’ve taken a look through the slate from Tuesday through to Sunday to pick out six home sides for our Home Heroes accumulator tip.
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Home Heroes Accumulator
Tuesday – Reading vs Cambridge United
Cambridge United’s struggles continued at the weekend with Wigan putting them out of the FA Cup. The U’s sit third bottom of League One, with only Burton Albion picking up fewer away points than them so far.
Cambridge have lost six times on their travels, including every game away to sides placed 14th or higher. Tuesday pits them against a Reading side who are seventh, largely thanks to some fine form at the Select Car Leasing Stadium. The Royals have won all but one of their home league games so far, so back them to boost their playoff push with another victory.
Wednesday – Aston Villa vs Brentford
Sunday’s 3-0 loss at Chelsea left Aston Villa winless in their last eight matches, pushing them close to evens to see off Brentford. The Bees moved a point ahead of Villa thanks to a comfortable win over Leicester, but 19 of their 20 points this term have come at home.
The Bees have played seven of the bottom eight at home, winning six of those games. Their only away point came in a goalless draw at 15th-placed Everton, while they’ve lost every encounter with a top-half side.
Aston Villa were unfortunate not to claim another huge scalp when they met Juventus last week and their four league defeats have all come against last season’s top six. Back them to reverse their fortunes against a Brentford side who have lost 17 of their last 24 league trips.
Thursday – Lazio vs Napoli
Antonio Conte is matching his strong starts with Juventus and Chelsea in Naples, as Napoli top Serie A after 14 games. His Partenopei side are benefitting from a lack of European football, as Juve and Chelsea did when Conte steered them to the title in his first season at both clubs.
One other consistent feature of Conte’s career is that his sides tend to struggle in domestic cups. Despite winning four Serie A titles across dominant spells with Juve and Inter Milan, his sides never won the Coppa Italia. That trend could well continue, as they head to a Lazio side who have won seven of their last nine home ties in this competition. Lazio have also won eight of their ten home games this season, so they can see off the league leaders.
Friday – Lille vs Brest
Brest have impressed in the Champions League this term, but they’ve slid to 11th in Ligue 1 after some inconsistent league form. While they picked up a victory over Strasbourg at the weekend, they’ve lost five of their last six away games in the league.
Lille have done a better job juggling their busy fixture list, they’ve beaten Real Madrid, Toulouse and Rennes across their last five at home, drawing with Lyon and Juventus. Having won six of their last eight home meetings with Brest, Lille can secure all three points on Friday.
Saturday – Sunderland vs Stoke
Sunderland’s promotion push has hit a skid with a six-game winless run, but the Black Cats have drawn five of those matches in a tricky run. Saturday’s encounter with Stoke offers them a chance to return to winning ways.
The Potters have struggled against the Championship’s top sides this season, losing all five meetings with the top seven. They’ve lost to nil at Sheffield United, Middlesbrough and Watford already, so expect them to struggle on Wearside.
Sunday – Willem II vs Heerenveen
Willem II have had an inconsistent campaign, but they are good value to see off a Heerenveen side who have been terrible on the road this season. The visitors have lost all seven of their away trips this season, conceding 23 goals and scoring just twice.
Heerenveen have lost 3-0 in each of their last three away games, while two of Willem II’s three home defeats have come against the top five. The visitors haven’t even made it to half-time level in any of their away games, so the hosts should be strong enough to add to Heerenveen’s struggles.
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