In The Mixer: Experts hunt value in League One outright betting

In The Mixer is FST’s weekly column where we catch up with our team of football betting experts and get their opinion on the hot topic of the week.

It is tight at the top in the battle for the League One title with just seven points separating Oxford United in sixth from leaders Portsmouth, who have played at least one game more than all five of their closest rivals.

This week we asked out team of experts for their value pick in the League One outright market, and Barnsley proved to be a popular but not unanimous choice.

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Where’s the value in the League One title race?

Liam Flin

It is certainly congested at the top of League One but I think leaders Portsmouth are being overlooked and offer some great value at 11/2.

Granted Pompey have played at least a game more than most of the teams around them but they have led the way for the majority of the season, which they began with a 16-game unbeaten run.

They have had a bit of a wobble since Boxing Day but nothing too major and got back on track with a resolute win at Fleetwood on Saturday, while they also have a prolific forward in Colby Bishop, who has bagged 13 goals this term.

Jamie Griffith

Given Barnsley would be just one point off current leaders Portsmouth if they win their two games in hand, it makes little sense to see Neill Collins’ side priced as big as 20/1 to land the League One title.

The Tykes’ form is trending the right way, with just one loss in their last 16 games after a mixed start to the season, and their impressive away record could be the thing that sees them get over the line ahead of their many rivals.

Barnsley have lost just one of their 12 away league games this term and that ability to get results on their travels could prove pivotal in the run-in.

Matthew Ireland

It’s an incredibly tight heat and you can definitely make a case for the top four sides, and possibly even the first six in the standings.

Second-placed Peterborough beat nearest pursuers Derby on New Year’s Day but the Rams are nevertheless the side I’d back at the prices.

That 3-2 reverse is Derby’s sole league defeat since the end of October and in Paul Warne they boast a manager who won three League One promotions during his time in charge of Rotherham.

Two of those ascents came via runners-up finishes and another in the playoffs, but the Rams boast the credentials and the quality to send Warne up as a title winner this time.

Jack Ogalbe

The congestion at the top of the table requires some picking through but Barnsley are regulars in the League One promotion mix and their momentum hints at a title push.

The Tykes are unbeaten in ten and have a couple of games in hand on leaders Portsmouth, albeit others have a similar luxury, with Pompey having played more matches than the rest of the top seven.

Barnsley’s recent history will give them confidence heading into the final months of the season and maybe I’m just a sucker for a big price, but the odds for them to take the title are almost too good to turn down.

Aidan Perkins

Portsmouth are 7/4 to finish either as champions or runners-up and land one of the automatic promotion places, which looks decent value considering they have been in the top two since September 23.

Pompey hold a one-point lead at the top after they got a much-needed 1-0 win at Fleetwood on Saturday, which followed on from damaging back-to-back defeats against Cheltenham and Leyton Orient.

With just seven points separating the top six, several sides will have designs on securing a top-two finish and it looks like being a very exciting second half to the season in the third tier.

Aaron Rogan

The League One title fight arguably goes as far down as sixth-placed Oxford, who are a huge 20/1 despite being just seven points off the top with two games in hand.

However, Oxford’s form is trending the wrong way, while other sides are surging up the table. Derby and Barnsley are the two standout climbers, but I’m looking to a Bolton side who have been in the mix for most of the season.

The 7/2 shots have won 10 of their last 14 league games. They’ve got great defensive numbers and a brilliant home record, so back them to have the consistency to win what’s set to be a tight race to the Championship.

Alex Wrigley

Barnsley look a massive price at 20/1 considering they are just seven points adrift of leaders Portsmouth and with at least one goal in hand on three of the four teams above them in the standings.

The Tykes are unbeaten in ten league matches and haven’t lost at Oakwell since September. They have a couple of huge fixtures coming up away to Oxford United and Bolton, but if they can get a good result or two in those trips expect their price to shorten considerably.

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