Serie A Betting Odds: Can 45/1 Outsiders Keep the Dream Alive in 2020?
Before becoming a Sports Journalist for Free Super Tips, Aaron spent three years studying Sports Journalism at the University of Sunderland while taking in the Black Cats' 'glory years' under Martin O'Neill. Now back in Northern Ireland he turns niche stats into predictions for FST, while he's one of the few people on this island who is equally comfortable at Windsor Park and the Aviva.
With no Christmas fixtures this year, Serie A wrapped up early for 2019. The first months of the new season were packed full of drama and surprises, with a strong showing from Italian clubs on the continent. However, what does the last few months tell us about what is in store in 2020?
Italy is no longer a one-horse race. From top to bottom there is major competition in the big markets. We’re running our eye over the key battles and highlighting the well-priced outsiders who are making a push for glory in the New Year. From 45/1 Champions League challengers Cagliari to a revitalised Lazio at 14/1 for the title, there are plenty of great stories around the league heading into 2020.
Keep up to date our Serie A predictions with our dedicated league page.
Serie A Title Race Odds – Inter & Lazio Make it Competitive
It’s fair to say that Italy hasn’t been the go-to place for a title fight in recent years. Napoli’s failed challenge in 2018 was the closest we’ve come. However, it’s all change this year. Maurizio Sarri nearly stopped Juve with Napoli in 2018. In his first season as Juventus manager, he could stop them from winning the title in 2020.
It hasn’t all been straightforward under Sarri. The former Napoli boss refuses to compromise his signature style and the adjustment period required has opened the door. That comes as two rivals start to shape up. Juve remain the odds-on favourites for the title across the board. However, Inter Milan sit level on points with Juve at the top of the table.
Inter were our selection in our Serie A outright betting predictions back in the summer. We believed in their new-look forward line and the decision to trust Antonio Conte to take the club forward. The three-time Serie A winning manager has won the league in four of his last five terms as a club manager. We continue to have faith in Conte, especially following the strong start both he and Romelu Lukaku have made in Milan.
However, there’s another contender in the field. Lazio have won each of their last eight Serie A games, with the club beating Juve 3-1 in that run. The Biancocelesti did the same again to end 2019, defeating Juve 3-1 in the Supercoppa Italiana in Saudi Arabia. Having beaten the champions and proved their consistency, some may be tempted to back Lazio. They’re just six points shy of the lead with a game in hand, while they’re 14/1 with BetVictor for glory.
Serie A Top 4 – Cagliari Following the Atalanta Blueprint
The last couple of seasons have given us great Champions League chases in Serie A. Inter and Lazio fought over the last place in 2018, while Atalanta thrilled their way to third in May. Three of the four places look to be taken, but that leaves one to fight for. Right now, Juve, Inter and Lazio are looking strong.
That leaves Roma, Atalanta and Napoli all scrapping for fourth in Serie A. AC Milan are too far back to challenge, but Cagliari aren’t. The Sardinian side are in the top six after a fantastic season. We covered their dealings in the transfer window, which have gone unbelievably well.
They have moved within six points of fourth after a great few months, but you can still find Cagliari as big as 45/1 with Betfair to make the Champions League. In a league which has had Atalanta rise to the top with a mid-table wage budget, Cagliari’s investment could pay off. None of the traditional powers look dependable, so it could be another surprise contender.
Atalanta aren’t expected to make the top four in Italy, despite making the last 16 in Europe. They are continuing to overperform their wage budget, while they are balancing their domestic duties with their run to the last 16 of the Champions League. Following their dramatics in Europe, a top-four finish this season might be even more impressive than last. Atalanta are pegged at Evens with bet365, while they’re certainly capable of making it. As the league’s top scorers and specialists in the unexpected, it’s hard to back against them.
Serie A Relegation – Trouble for New Boys
The three new sides from Serie B always tend to feature near the bottom the following season. Brescia looked the best placed to avoid that fate in the summer. They have Italy starlet Sandro Tonali in midfield, while they landed Mario Balotelli in the summer to much fanfare.
However, Brescia have lost 11 of their 17 games in the top flight this season to fall into the bottom three. They’ve made big moves in the market, while their managerial change didn’t work out well. Eugenio Corini was sacked, rehired and has now had his contract extended. He oversaw their dismal start to the season, making them a good bet for the drop at evens with bet365.
Fellow promoted side Lecce have a one-point lead over the drop zone heading into the New Year. However, with one win in their last 12, you have to wonder how long they’ll stay out of danger. Lecce remain without a home win this season, which suggests that they’ll struggle to beat the drop. With SPAL and Genoa set to head into 2020 in good hands, we think that Lecce will pay the price. The Serie A newcomers are 4/6 with BetVictor for the drop.