16/1 & 20/1 Conference League 2024/25 outright betting tips
Before becoming a Sports Journalist for Free Super Tips, Aaron spent three years studying Sports Journalism at the University of Sunderland while taking in the Black Cats' 'glory years' under Martin O'Neill. Now back in Northern Ireland he turns niche stats into predictions for FST, while he's one of the few people on this island who is equally comfortable at Windsor Park and the Aviva.
There’s a fresh feel to this season’s Europa Conference League, with not just a tweak to the name but a brand new format to the fledgling competition.
As was the case with my Europa League outright tips, the end of sides dropping down from a higher UEFA competition changes the playing field when it comes to picking a winner.
The Conference League has a wide range of nations represented, with just four clubs from Europe’s top five leagues. Chelsea, Real Betis and Fiorentina are the early favourites, but there’s reason to look elsewhere as you’ll see in my 16/1 and 20/1 selections.
How does the new Conference League format work?
Like the other European competitions, the Conference League features a 36-team League Phase where the top eight will qualify for the last 16, with the sides from ninth to 24th heading into a preliminary knockout round.
Unlike the other two competitions, Conference League sides face just six matches at the first stage.
Conference League winner odds
- Chelsea – 7/4
- Real Betis – 4/1
- Fiorentina – 5/1
- Gent – 16/1
- Panathinaikos – 16/1
- Copenhagen – 16/1
- Heidenheim – 16/1
*All odds correct at time of writing on 1st September 2024 with bet365
There’s a clear big three in this competition, but there’s reason to oppose each of them. Fiorentina have lost the previous two Conference League finals, but the manager who led them there – Vincenzo Italiano – has departed for Bologna.
Real Betis dropped into this competition from the Europa League last term and they were eliminated by Dinamo Zagreb in the first knockout round. They’ve been eliminated at the first knockout round in three of their last four campaigns and that lack of European success is a concern.
As for Chelsea, they’re the standout favourites. As ridiculous as it sounds given their transfer chaos, they looked short of depth in their qualifying tie with Servette. A 2-1 second-leg defeat to a Swiss side that exited this competition at the last 16 stage last term doesn’t fill me with confidence of a return on their 7/4 odds.
Conference League outright predictions
Conference League outright winner – FC Copenhagen at 16/1
There’s been a stark drop for Copenhagen in Europe, after they reached the last 16 of the Champions League last term. While they fell to Manchester City over two legs earlier this year, the fact they escaped a group stage containing Bayern Munich, Galatasaray and Manchester United shows their quality.
The Danish side have fallen into the Conference League after losing out in a tight battle for the Danish title last season. They finished just four points shy of champions Midtjylland, but their third-place finish has sent them into UEFA’s third-tier tournament.
Copenhagen topped their group in their last appearance in this competition in 2021/22, only to lose out to a PSV side that dropped down from the Europa League. The Danish outfit won’t have to fear those kinds of sides this term.
Copenhagen have lost some key players from last season’s European run but they’ve reinvested well. They’ve brought in defensive depth, added a new goalkeeper in English stopper Nathan Trott from West Ham and they’ve brought Danish midfielder Thomas Delaney back to the club.
Copenhagen have made a strong start to their Superliga campaign and after their European exploits last season, they are my outright winner tip at 16/1.
League Phase winner – Vitoria Guimaraes at 20/1
With all 36 teams competing in the League Phase, the market for the side to top the final standings is another interesting betting angle. Vitoria Guimaraes are a side to consider for a strong run at 25/1, but their 20/1 price to lead the way in the League Phase caught my eye.
The Portuguese side had to come through three rounds of qualifiers to reach this point and they won all six games to nil, scoring 17 times along the way. Guimaraes finished just nine points shy of Porto in the league last term, a side who are fancied for Europa League success.
The draw has also been kind to the Portuguese outfit, who were seeded in pot three. They face Fiorentina from the top-seeded sides, but getting the Italians at home doesn’t seem that bad. Their other five opponents – Djurgardens, Astana, Mlada Boleslav, St Gallen and Celje – look beatable for the Portuguese outfit.
The fixtures have also lined up well, as they meet Fiorentina in their final game and host Celje and Mlada Boleslav in their first three matches. Guimaraes have already made a flying start in Europe this term and they can take advantage of that fixture list to get points on the board early. If their strong form continues, then you’ll get huge value out of their 20/1 price.
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