Analysis: Manchester Derby betting trends in the post-Ferguson era
Content Editor at Free Super Tips, Alex was born in the shadow of Old Trafford and is an avid Man Utd fan. After graduating from university he combined his love of football, writing and betting to join FST and now closely follows goings-on in all of the top European leagues.
Sunday’s standout fixture takes us to the Etihad Stadium for the Manchester Derby and it is a rivalry that has undergone some monumental changes over the past two decades.
Branded the Red Devils’ noisy neighbours by Sir Alex Ferguson during their oil-funded ascension, the Cityzens have made Manchester, and indeed the entire Premier League, their own in recent years.
However, derbies are strange affairs and, while Manchester City may have won the lion’s share of trophies since Alex Ferguson retired in 2013, have they translated that dominance into derby success?
I’ve analysed the last ten years of Manchester’s rivalry below to find out.
Manchester Derby betting trends
There have been 26 competitive Manchester derbies in the post-Ferguson era and the results have been more even than many might expect.
Manchester City have won 14 to their rivals’ nine successes, with the spoils being shared on just three occasions.
The goal count tells a slightly different – and more one-sided – story, though.
The Cityzens have notched a massive 47 goals to Manchester United’s 28, with 12 of these goals coming in the four meetings since Erik ten Hag took the reins at Old Trafford.
This has resulted in 14 encounters beating the 2.5 goal line and both sides finding the net 12 times, accounting for 53% and 46% of derbies respectively.
Speaking of the stadiums, how do they stack up when the two sides clash in the blue half of Manchester?
Home comforts for the Cityzens?
Once again, the two sides are more closely matched than the recent trophy count would have you believe.
The hosts lead the win count by just 6-5, with one stalemate in the 12 Etihad meetings since 2013.
City have scored 23 goals to United’s 16, with seven of those 12 fixtures seeing at least three goals and all seven of those games featuring goals at both ends.
What to back on derby day?
Of course, the history between these two clubs only tells part of the story, with the performances of this campaign making up the rest of it.
However, there has been an undeniably huge gulf between these clubs in the past decade, but Manchester United have defied the odds on several occasions and that should not be discounted again on Sunday.
At odds of 1/4, there may be value in opposing Pep Guardiola’s side. Equally, odds of 15/8 for Under 2.5 goals look appealing given only around half of recent derbies have been high-scoring affairs.
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