Champions League outright update & 40/1 last 16 qualifying acca
Sports Journalist at FST, Gareth qualified as a journalist after graduating from university and spent over a decade as a freelance broadcast journalist, commentator and tipster before joining FST. Now living in Manchester, he is a long suffering Bolton Wanderers fan who also enjoys boxing, the NBA, tennis and rugby league.
The Champions League last 16 games get underway on Tuesday with Manchester City in action against FC Copenhagen and Real Madrid facing off against RB Leipzig.
I’ve picked my best bet to qualify for each of the eight last 16 ties and had a fresh look at the ever changing landscape in the outright markets as well.
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40/1 Champions League Last 16 Qualifying Acca
Man City to qualify vs FC Copenhagen @ 1/40
Defending champions Manchester City are the overwhelming favourites to qualify in their double-header with FC Copenhagen and an upset here is virtually unthinkable. The Danish outfit did finish ahead of Manchester United in the group stage, but City are starting to hit their stride and have their star men fit again – so back the Premier League club to sail through.
Real Madrid to qualify vs RB Leipzig @ 1/3
Record holders Real Madrid have a potentially tricky tie against Germany’s RB Leipzig but they should avoid an early exit. Los Blancos have reached the semi-finals or better in each of the last three seasons and come into Tuesday’s first leg in form, while Leipzig have just one win in five games since Germany’s winter break.
Bayern Munich to qualify vs Lazio @ 1/8
German heavyweights Bayern Munich are clear favourites to see off Lazio over two legs. The first leg takes place in Italy and Lazio will feel they have a chance of getting a result in Rome, but Bayern have enough quality in their squad to progress over the two legs.
Real Sociedad to qualify vs PSG @ 6/4
There are usually one or two upsets in the last 16 and Spanish outfit Real Sociedad may just be able to edge out PSG. La Real finished ahead of last year’s runners-up Inter Milan in the groups and PSG managed just two wins in Group F, although that did appear to be the toughest first round draw. Sociedad managed to navigate the group stages without losing an away game, or conceding a goal, and if they can get a result in Paris in the first leg they should be fancied to finish the job when PSG make the trip to Spain.
Atletico Madrid to qualify vs Inter Milan @ 5/4
The match-up between Atletico Madrid and Inter Milan looks fairly evenly matched and I’m siding with slight underdogs Atleti here. Los Colchoneros have been in mixed form domestically, but they navigated the group stages unbeaten and finished ahead of the Nerazzurri’s league rivals Lazio. Inter also came through unbeaten but did draw three of their six games, including both meetings with Sociedad. Inter may have reached the final last year but they had a fairly favourable draw and they could fall short against a quality Atleti outfit this season.
Borussia Dortmund to qualify vs PSV @ 3/4
Borussia Dortmund have been better in Europe than they have domestically this season after topping the ‘Group of Death’ Group F, and they should have too much for PSV Eindhoven over the course of two legs. This is PSV’s best season in Europe since a last 16 exit in this competition in the 2015/16 campaign, while BVB are experienced campaigners in the Champions League and should be expected to reach the quarter-finals.
Arsenal to qualify vs Porto @ 1/5
Arsenal have come through a rough patch and appear to be flying again after thrashing West Ham 6-0 at the weekend. The Gunners should be expected to overcome Porto anyway, but the Portuguese giants have hit a blip of their own after taking just one point from games against Rio Ave and Arouca in their last two games, so Arsenal look worthy favourites.
Napoli to qualify vs Barcelona @ 5/4
Napoli’s Scudetto defence has been tame, at best, but in Europe they have been locked in and could cause an upset by taking out Barcelona. The Partenopei should have Victor Osimhen back for these two games after his AFCON campaign, and they gave a good account of themselves against Real Madrid in the group stages. This Barca side are lacking a bit of direction with boss Xavi to leave at the end of the season, and Napoli may be able to take advantage.
Champions League Outright Update
FST tipsters have gone for both Bayern Munich and Real Madrid to take the trophy previously this season, but circumstances change and right now I feel the stars are aligning for Man City to defend the trophy.
The Premier League champions know how to finish a season strongly – as they showed last year – and they have all their key men coming back fit again. Bayern have a serious Bundesliga challenge to cope with, while Real have an injury to Jude Bellingham to worry about and they were well beaten by City in the last four last year.
The bookies have City as the favourites at 15/8 ahead of Bayern at 4/1, while Real and Arsenal are both rated at 11/2. As things stand, it is hard to oppose the favourites here as over two legs you’d have to fancy City against any of the teams left in the draw. The final is a different matter but as they managed to hold their nerve and overcome Inter Milan last year they should be more confident should they reach this year’s showpiece, so right bow City look the best bet even at a short price.
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