Championship 2024/25 top scorer predictions with 12/1, 16/1 & 40/1 tips

After our Championship outright predictions and our picks for the play-offs and relegation, our focus turns to the always-interesting race to be top scorer. Sammie Szmodics – a 50/1 shot – took the title last term, and this time around we have 12/1, 16/1 and 40/1 selections.

Don’t forget to check out all of our outright predictions here, along with the schedule for the rest of our tips!

Championship top-goalscorer predictions

Carlton Morris at 12/1

After a couple of solid seasons at Barnsley, Morris arrived at Luton and immediately led their push for promotion. He netted 20 goals in the 2022/23 season as the Hatters won the playoffs. Only Chuba Akpom and Viktor Gyokeres outscored him, earning that pair moves to Ajax and Sporting Lisbon.

Morris hung around and he impressed in the Premier League last season. A return of 11 goals in 38 games last term was incredibly strong given how his side struggled against top-flight opposition. He came close to matching his Expected Goals tally of 12 and this term will see Morris getting plenty of chances.

In his last season at this level, the forward had over 100 shots inside the box. That’s considerably more than his 71 total shots in the Premier League. As a proven forward playing for a settled side that will contend for promotion, he should score plenty of goals this season.

Ellis Simms at 16/1

Coventry kicked on from a poor start last season to push into ninth place, with their playoff ambitions hit by an impressive FA Cup run that took them to Wembley. They finished last season with the sixth-highest xG tally despite initially struggling to deal with some high-profile departures. Their new signings took time to settle, but there’s no excuse for them not to start on the right foot this time around.

That goes for Ellis Simms, who finally has a club to call home. He has spent many years on loan in the EFL from Everton before joining Coventry last summer. He scored 13 times in his first year with the Sky Blues, but he took a while to get going. He netted only twice before Christmas and he was in and out of the side until Valentine’s Day.

He started 17 of the club’s final 18 games in all competitions, scoring 15 times. Last season was the first time Simms made more than 25 league appearances for a club in a season, so playing a second season for Coventry should help him. With the club in a better place than a year ago, Simms could really build on last term and push up the scoring charts.

Zan Celar at 40/1

QPR enjoyed one of the biggest turnarounds in the 23/24 campaign under Marti Cifuentes, surging up the table and away from danger. The Spaniard made his side really hard to beat, but they were lacking goals. Just three sides managed fewer across the division.

The side underperformed their Expected Goals tally and their top scorer had just seven goals. Given that, there’s pressure on new arrival Zan Celar.

The Slovenian forward spent most of his early career in Italy, before heading to Lugano in the Swiss Super League. The striker scored 40 goals in 95 league matches, playing a part in a Lugano side that went from fourth to third to second year-on-year.

In all competitions last term, he netted 21 goals in 48 matches. As QPR’s main scoring threat, he can build on that this season. At 40/1, he’s a huge price to deliver for a side on the up.

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