Euro 2020 outright tips update for semi-finals

24 teams have been whittled down to the last four as we enter the final week of Euro 2020 and with the semi-finals set to kick off on Tuesday it’s time for another outright tips update.

England lead the markets at 6/4 with our pre-tournament outsider Italy coming a close second at 9/4. Denmark – another of our ante-post tips – bring up the rear at 9/1 with Spain nestled in between at 11/4.

Ukraine were our dark horse picks at a hefty 50/1 but were sent packing by England on Saturday, but we still have two horses left in the final four.

FST’s Euro 2020 pre-tournament predictions

Italy

Tipped at 11/1

Now: 9/4

Italy produced a masterclass in game management towards the end of their quarter-final win over Belgium but prior to that it was a properly entertaining match.

Robert Mancini’s side look deadly going forward and, while they have conceded in their last two games, they are generally pretty sound at the back. Combine that with Spain’s lack of cutting edge going forward and you have to fancy the Azzurri on Tuesday.

That just leaves the final at Wembley and at 9/4 they still look a good price to lift the trophy on Sunday.

Denmark

Tipped at 28/1

Now: 9/1

Despite overcoming Czech Republic on Saturday night Denmark’s odds have only shortened to 9/1 from 10/1 pre-match, and despite our pick for England to win on Wednesday that still looks a good price for the underdogs.

Only Spain have generated a higher xG than Denmark in Euro 2020 and La Roja have conceded more xG than the Danes. Kasper Hjulmand’s men overcame a hugely difficult opening period of the tournament and now have ten goals in their last two games.  It’s worth noting that, despite their horrific start to the tournament, they have actually won the xG battle in all five of their matches this tournament.

Denmark definitely look undervalued heading into the semi-finals. They are a talented and well-balanced side who have an extraordinary feeling of togetherness following the horrendous scenes in the opening game.

They are underdogs against England but, if they can navigate that tie, expect a huge swell of support for the neutrals’ favourites in the final. That could make all the difference.

What about the others?

England

Odds – 6/4

Don’t get me wrong, I think this England side looks very capable of winning Euro 2020 but odds of 6/4 are just too short to consider here.

Gareth Southgate’s side are yet to concede in the tournament but Germany have been the only real test they have faced so far. Denmark are a much better side than Croatia, Scotland, Czech Republic or Ukraine and if they come up against Italy in the final that could prove a step too far for the Three Lions.

However, if they navigate the challenge of Denmark and end up playing Spain at Wembley I truly believe they could actually do it.

Spain

Odds – 11/4

You might have guessed already, but I don’t rate Spain that highly.

Luis Enrique’s side are undoubtedly very good at creating chances, their tournament-leading 14.4 xG proves that. But the fact they have only converted that into nine goals is telling as well and their 6.2 xG conceded is significantly worse than Denmark, Italy or England.

That is La Roja’s problem: They simply don’t perform well in either penalty area.

Gerard Moreno and Alvaro Morata have proven incredibly wasteful in front of goal – they have converted just two of their combined 6.9 xG into goals – and the central defensive partnerships don’t look convincing at all. Expect Italy to take advantage of this and I would probably fancy both Denmark and England against them if they did manage to upset the Azzurri.

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