Europa League outright predictions with 12/1, 20/1 & 100/1 tips
Before becoming a Sports Journalist for Free Super Tips, Aaron spent three years studying Sports Journalism at the University of Sunderland while taking in the Black Cats' 'glory years' under Martin O'Neill. Now back in Northern Ireland he turns niche stats into predictions for FST, while he's one of the few people on this island who is equally comfortable at Windsor Park and the Aviva.
The fixtures for the revamped Europa League have been announced, with the action getting underway this week.
While the format change is key, the fact that Champions League sides can no longer tumble into the competition mid-way is arguably even bigger. It means that the eventual winner is guaranteed to be in the original field of 36.
Having more certainty around the contenders changes how we approach the Europa League outright. It should open the door to some outsiders, as should the tweaked format.
How does the new Europa League format work?
The League Phase features 36 sides, who will be ranked in a huge league table. Each team plays eight matches in this phase – four at home and four away. They’ll play two sides from each of the four pots, leading to more even games across the first round.
After the eighth matchday – which takes place in January – the top eight sides will qualify for the Round of 16, then the next 16 sides will enter a playoff round. The bottom 12 teams will be eliminated. The top two sides in the League Phase will be seeded for the knockout draw, guaranteeing they can’t meet until the final.
Europa League winner odds
- Tottenham – 9/2
- Man United – 5/1
- Roma – 8/1
- Real Sociedad – 11/1
- Athletic Bilbao – 12/1
- FC Porto – 12/1
- Lazio – 14/1
*All odds correct at time of writing on 31st August 2024 with bet365
Europa League outright predictions
Europa League outright winner – Athletic Bilbao at 12/1
Part of Athletic Bilbao’s pitch to retain Euro 2024 winner Nico Williams was based around a deep Europa League run. Their home stadium of San Mames is hosting the final, so the club’s return to European action couldn’t have come at a better time.
Last season brought progress under returning boss Ernesto Valverde. He took the team to fifth in La Liga and they won the Copa del Rey. That cup success should be key to their progress in this competition.
Athletic are the favourites for a top-four finish in La Liga after Real Madrid, Barcelona and Atletico, so it’s odd they’re a bitter price than Basque rivals Real Sociedad – a side who lost key man Mikel Merino.
Spain is the most successful nation in this competition with 14 wins and a Spanish side has lifted this trophy in eight of the previous 11 campaigns. With that track record, the motivation of a home final and led by a superstar in the making, Athletic have what it takes to go all the way.
Europa League outsider tip – Lyon at 20/1
Lyon have had a tough start in Ligue 1 this term as they regroup following a busy summer in the transfer market. The momentum they built up last season hasn’t carried into the new campaign, while a tricky League Phase schedule likely adds to their price.
However, home meetings with Olympiakos, Ludogorets and Besiktas offer Lyon a path into the next round. Given how Pierre Sage had them rolling in the second-half of last season, this could be a side that finds its feet after Christmas.
I don’t see Lyon drifting too far from their 20/1 price but they could end up cut significantly if they can hit the heights from the second half of last season. The French side had the joint-best record in Ligue 1 from New Years Day through to May and they made the French Cup final. Given the heights they’ve proven they can reach, I like Lyon’s chances as outsiders at 20/1.
Europa League dark horse tip – Rangers at 100/1
Rangers might not go all the way, but there’s at least some cash-out value to be had on them at 100/1. Tricky fixtures against Premier League pair Tottenham and Man United in the League Phase are the only justifications I can see for that price, which has them as long as Malmo and behind Viktoria Plzen and FC Midtjylland.
The Gers should be able to negotiate their other fixtures, especially after topping a group which contained Sparta Prague and Real Betis last season. UEFA’s rankings had just four sides ranked above Rangers out of the 36 teams in terms of their European record across the last five years – Roma, Man United, Porto and Ajax.
That’s because Rangers have been a consistent presence in this competition, making the last 16 in four of the last five seasons. They went as far as the final in 2022 to boot. Last season they let Benfica off the hook, twice leading in Lisbon before a 3-2 aggregate defeat to a side that had slid out of the Champions League.
Rangers won’t suffer a similar fate this time around, leaving the competition open for them to have another deep run. Given how they’ve fared in tougher seasons, 100/1 is a huge price that will surely drop with a little progress in this competition.
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