Football betting analysis: highest scoring half markets worth exploring
Born in the south east of Ireland, Simon put his life-long love of football to good use when he started a successful independent blog in 2010. That opened up an alternative route to a career in journalism, and having had work published across a number of sites and publications, Simon joined the staff at Spotlight Sports Group in 2018.
The cliché “goals change games” is a phrase usually found near the top of any list of football idioms you stumble across. A common extension to that expression reads “goals change games whenever they are scored”, but at what stage of the game are those goals most likely to arrive?
One of the most underutilized markets in the football betting arena are the “half with the most goals” or “highest scoring half” selections offered by bookmakers.
Statistically, more goals are more likely to be scored in the second half of matches overall in England’s top flight and major leagues across Europe and in general terms, the highest scoring half odds for the vast majority of fixtures you’ll find will reflect that.
However, with a little digging, you can find plenty of individual teams that buck the overall trends.
The data displayed in the table above shows that just 45.3% of the total goals scored across the Premier League so far this season were notched in the first half of the campaign’s fixtures, with 54.7% arriving in the second.
That pattern repeats itself consistently right across the continent’s other major domestic competitions too – so it’s understandable then, that bookmakers tend to offer much more favourable odds on the opening 45-minute periods of individual matches seeing more goals than the second.
More often than not, punters can get odds of around evens (1/1, 2.0) if they want to back the second half of a game to see more goals than the first, however, first half odds in the same market are regularly worth around twice that price (2/1, 3.0).
That odds jump opens up some potentially lucrative avenues to explore for savvy operators, and below we’ve compiled a list of teams from Europe’s major leagues that are well worth keeping an eye on in the highest scoring half markets.
Premier League
Title hopefuls Manchester City have been the Premier League’s most potent first half fliers this term, netting 70% of their top-flight goals so far before the half time interval, and the average minute the Citizens goals have arrived so far this term has been the 38th.
West Brom, Crystal Palace and Southampton have all seen over two thirds of their goals this season registered in the first half of their fixtures, while Liverpool creep on to the list with 55.6% of their 18 goals scored so far hammered home before the half time whistle.
Liverpool play Leicester City in a top of the table tussle this weekend, where you can grab odds of 21/10 for the first half to see the most goals compared to 20/21 for the second.
In terms of the most potent purveyors of second half strikes, no team comes close to matching Newcastle United who have bagged a huge 80% of their Premier League goals in the second half of their games, while Leicester City and Chelsea both tend to save their best work until after they’ve enjoyed their half time cuppa.
Arsenal and Burnley could also be considered slow-burning teams with 66.7% of their goals plundered in the second half of their league fixtures this season respectively.
Coincidentally, two of the top three best second half performers – Newcastle and Chelsea – face off at St. James’ Park on Saturday. You can grab 20/21 odds with bet365 for Newcastle and Chelsea‘s skirmish to see more goals in the second half than the first.
Check out the latest Premier League predictions, news, match previews, betting tips and special offers here.
La Liga
About 1500 miles south of Tyneside in Spain, Elche are the ones to watch for first half goals, and while their results this season have been inconsistent, Los Franjiverdes have regularly been La Liga’s early birds when it comes to finding the net.
Real Betis have been up and at ’em with great effect in Spain too, hitting 66.7% of their league goals since the summer before half time, while Alaves, Valladolid and Barcelona are among the division’s next best first half scorers, despite hovering in and around La Liga’s average overall figures for first half strikes.
Elche travel to take on Levante on Saturday, where you can back the first half to see most of the action at 21/10.
If you’re on the look out for second half snipers, then Athletic Bilbao and Huesca should be your first ports of call. Both clubs have plundered the vast majority of their La Liga goals in the second interval this season, while Julen Lopetegui’s tactically robust Sevilla team and Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid are also worth your time when surfing the highest scoring half markets in Spain.
Early pace setters Real Sociedad have been grinding down their opponents later on in games too, with 65% of their La Liga goals so far in 2020/21 arriving after the interval. You can grab 11/10 odds with bet365 on the second half of Real’s latest test at Cadiz seeing more goals than the first this weekend.
Keep up to date with our latest French football tips on our Ligue 1 predictions page.
Bundesliga
Wolfsburg have been the kings of first half action in the Bundesliga this season, rifling home a full 85.7% of their goals before the break so far, though Freiburg – who have been scoring three quarters of their goals in the first half – are running them close.
Mainz, and continental competitors RB Leipzig and Leverkusen also rank among the league’s top five most prolific first half teams. In another wonderful coincidence, two of the clubs that feature in the table above are scheduled to play each other on Sunday, and you can back the first half of Freiburg’s skirmish with Mainz to be the highest scoring period at 11/5 with bet365.
Before you get too excited about Arminia Bielefeld’s remarkable second half scoring record, it’s only fair that we point out that Die Blauen have only scored four goals in total so far this season, which makes 15-goal Borussia Dortmund’s 80% second half strike rate far more noteworthy.
FC Koln and Union Berlin – who have have both been hitting the net far more often in the second half than the first -meet on Sunday this weekend, where you can back the second half to see the most goals at 21/20 with bet365.
You can find our latest German football betting tips and analysis over on our Bundesliga predictions page.
Serie A
Serie A’s bottom club Crotone are the Italian top-tier’s most prolific first half scorers in terms of percentage, though the relegation candidates have scored just six times this season, rendering their statistic far less show-stopping. Atalanta however – who are the division’s joint top-scorers overall – have smashed home 66.7% of their goals in the first half of their games, while Torino, Sampdoria and Spezia have all also been showing more form before the break.
Before you ask….no we aren’t making this up. Spezia and Atalanta meet in Serie A on Saturday, where you can get 2/1 odds on the first half seeing more goals than the second.
Early campaign surprise package Sassuolo are Serie A’s joint highest scorers so far this season, and remarkably, the Neroverdi have registered an eye-watering 83.3% of their goals this season after their half time refreshments. Continental qualification hopefuls Lazio meanwhile, have scored 81.1% of their goals after a sit down, while Udinese, Parma and Napoli have all been making the most of the opportunity to recharge between halves.
If you want to get your hands on some more FREE Italian football betting tips, we recommend you check out our dedicated Serie A page via the link.
Ligue 1
Only two clubs have a bigger goal haul in Ligue 1 so far this season than Lyon, though Les Gones have come out of the blocks more quickly than any other team in the division this term, hitting 70.6% of their efforts before the officials have blown for half time. Brest and Reims – who are among the league’s top 10 most prolific teams overall – have been stepping on the gas in the second 45, while struggling Dijon and table climbing Monaco also make appearances.
Lyon put their fast start skills to the test when they travel to play Angers this weekend, where you can find 2/1 odds for the first half in that clash to see more goals than the second.
Two of Ligue 1’s current bottom four clubs – Lorient and Nimes – rank as the division’s likeliest teams to score in the second half this season, while Montpellier, PSG and Saint Etienne have all pushed through the 60% ceiling for goals in the second period since the summer.
The perennially dominant PSG have a trickier than usual test to overcome this weekend when they travel south to the principality to take on Monaco. The hosts, of course, have scored most of their goals inside 45 minutes this season, but if you think Les Monégasques can frustrate their free-scoring Parisian visitors, you can nab 10/11 odds with bet365 for the second half of the game at the Stade Louis II to see more goals than the first.
Looking for more French football tips and analysis? Head on over to our Ligue 1 predictions page now!
More FST News:
UEFA Nations League betting tips: An early look at Tuesday’s action with 15/1 acca
