Formula 1: Azerbaijan Grand Prix predictions with 20/1, 5/1 & 15/8 tips!

Formula 1 returns after a month-long break and with it comes a brand new format for Sprint weekends, with the Azerbaijan Grand Prix the first of six scheduled F1 Sprints this season.

The new format was only decided earlier this week and has caused plenty of confusion, but I’ll cover all that and more below.

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Sprint shakeup in Baku

A relatively new addition to Formula 1, the previous iteration of the Sprint weekends saw the main qualifying session set the grid for the mini Sprint race, while the final order of the Sprint race set the grid for the main Grand Prix on the Sunday.

There were plenty of complaints from drivers and fans alike over this setup, with many complaining that the low stakes and potentially drastic consequences of crashing out of the Sprint resulted in drivers taking a very cautious approach.

Not anymore, though!

The new Sprint format effectively treats the entire section as its own standalone spectacle, with Friday’s qualifying setting the grid for Sunday’s Grand Prix and Saturday being dedicated to the Sprint. Here’s how it will look:

• Friday, 10:30 – 11:30 – Free Practice 1
• Friday, 14:00 – 15:00 – Qualifying for the Grand Prix
• Saturday, 09:30 – 10:14 – Sprint Shootout (qualification for the Sprint race)
• Saturday 14:30 – 15:00 – Sprint race
• Sunday 12:00 – Azerbaijan Grand Prix

In theory, this should increase incentive for hard racing in the Sprint, with drivers knowing that even an elimination in the Sprint would not effect their grid position for Sunday’s Grand Prix.

In addition, it also does away with two Free Practice sessions, meaning teams will have to nail their setup in one hour on Friday.

Azerbaijan Grand Prix best bet

Max Verstappen fastest qualifier & win Sprint Shootout, Sprint & Race at 15/8

A chaotic end to the Australian Grand Prix, which eventually ended behind the safety car, made the timing boards look a lot closer than they otherwise would have been.

In truth, it was another absolutely dominant performance from Max Verstappen. He led the race by over ten seconds prior to a red flag on lap 55 and there just seems to be no stopping this Red Bull.

He has taken pole position twice and won on both occasions, with the only blemish being a driveshaft failure in Q2 at Jeddah, resulting in him qualifying 15th. Despite this, the pace of the Red Bull still allowed him to battle back to the second spot on the podium.

Barring any car issues, it’s hard to imagine anybody outqualifying Verstappen and the Dutchman certainly knows how to convert pole position into a race win.

Since the start of the 2022 season, he has taken pole nine times and won eight of those Grands Prix. It is certainly not out of the question that the WDC leader can win all four sessions this weekend.

Azerbaijan Grand Prix qualifying predictions

Alonso, Leclerc, Perez, Sainz, Stroll & Verstappen top 6 finish at 5/1

A front row start for both Red Bull drivers is, once again, very likely. Sergio Perez had an awful weekend in Australia but prior to that had qualified on the front row in both races, while Verstappen’s only failure to do so came as a result of a driveshaft failure in Jeddah.

Much has been made about Ferrari’s step backwards this season but they remain quick in qualifying. Carlos Sainz has qualified in the top six in all three races, while Charles Leclerc outshone him in the opening two weekends and only narrowly missed out when qualifying seventh in Australia.

The big story of the season has to be the huge leap made by Aston Martin and they can be classed as one of Red Bull’s main competitors, now. Fernando Alonso has been in the top five qualifiers in all three races, while Lance Stroll has qualified sixth in his last two outings, only failing to do so in Bahrain after a lack of time in the car due to a hand injury he sustained.

Azerbaijan Sprint predictions

Lance Stroll top 6 finish at 8/11

Lance Stroll gets a bit of a bad rap due to his father owning the Aston Martin Formula 1 team but the Canadian is a solid driver in a very good car and looks undervalued in the market.

He started the season with a broken hand but still managed to take sixth-place in Bahrain and he qualified sixth in Jeddah, only to be let down by a car failure early on in the race.

Stroll took sixth on the grid again in Australia and this time managed to convert it to a fourth-place finish on the Sunday so, barring any mishaps, he looks good value for a top-eight finish in the Sprint, especially when teammate Fernando Alonso is 1/6 for the same outcome.

Azerbaijan Grand Prix predictions

Both cars in the top 6 – Aston Martin at 11/10

Aston Martin are by far the most improved team this season and look set to challenge for the silver medal in the Constructors’ Championship.

Fernando Alonso, widely regarded as the most talented driver on the grid, has finished third in all three Grands Prix so far and looks at the top of his game, despite his advancing years.

Lance Stroll may be some way off the capabilities of his decorated teammate but he finished fourth in Australia last time out and managed a top-six finish in the 2023 curtain raiser while suffering from a broken hand.

Both Aston Martins have finished in the top six in two of the three races this season, with a lap 17 retirement of Stroll in Jeddah being the only blemish on an otherwise fantastic start to the campaign.

Stroll top 6 finish, Bottas, Russell & Tsunoda points finish at 20/1

Lance Stroll has finished in the top six in two of the three races this season despite starting the season with a broken hand, and his only failure to do so came because of a car failure in Jeddah.

George Russell, in the rapidly improving Mercedes, should have no problems getting in the points after finishing in the top ten in 22 of the 25 Grands Prix since he joined the Silver Arrows.

Admittedly, Alfa Romeo haven’t exactly excelled this season but Valtteri Bottas did take eighth in Bahrain and was just one position outside the top ten in Australia, while teammate Yuki Tsunoda has finished 11th, 11th and tenth so far this season.

If the stars align, this 20/1 shot could be in with a good shout.

Over 1.5 safety cars at 5/6

Since its debut in 2017, the streets of Baku have become renowned for the frequent deployment of the safety car.

The first Azerbaijan Grand Prix saw the safety car deployed three times and there has been at least two safety car deployments in three of the five instalments.

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