Premier League Table: Actual vs Expected
Each week throughout the Premier League season we have brought to you expected goal round ups for the gameweek’s action. Now the teams have had a 2 week break from club football to join up with their International sides it’s time to look at how the Premier League is shaping up and whether teams are where they deserve to be based on expected points.
Current Premier League Table
Overachievers
Arsenal
Arsenal are seriously overachieving this season and their 5-1 win against Fulham is just one example. They created just 1.22 xG in that game compared to Fulham’s 1.46 xG yet managed to emerge 5-1 victors. It’s been a similar story all season, since losing their opening 2 games they have gone on a run of 6 consecutive Premier League victories however have been extremely fortunate. Based on chances they have created they would be expected to score on average 1.5 goals per game whilst in their opening 8 games they have actual scored at a rate of 2.4 per game. That’s nearly a goal a game more than they are expected to. On the defensive side of things they are conceding 1.3 per game whilst based on chances created against them they would be expected to concede 1.5 per game. Whilst not a huge amount, it amasses to over a goal a game Arsenal are better off than they would be expected to be. A reality check maybe in store for them soon in the form of a heavy defeat.
Burnley
Burnley have recovered from their dreadful start and now sit 12th in the table however based on expected points they should be sitting as low as 16th. They are scoring 1.3 goals per game on average however they are creating just 1.1 goals per game based on chances. This was a similar story to last season when they heavily over performed on the expected goals metric. Defensively is where they have been a bit fortunate, opponents have created 1.9 expected goals per game against them however have only scored 1.5 per game. Burnley have been fairly resolute at the back of late but have their goalkeeper Joe Hart to thank that they haven’t conceded as many as expected. Are Burnley back or have they just had a bit of luck? The jury remains out on that one for the time being.
Brighton
Rounding off the overachievers so far this season is Brighton however they have been slightly unlucky in front of goal this season. They have scored 1.1 goals per game when based on chances created they would be expected to score 1.3 goals per game. At the other end of the pitch is where The Seagulls have gotten away with it slightly, they have conceded 1.6 goals per game on average when based on chances created against them Brighton would be expected to concede 2 goals a game. Based on expected points Brighton should be sitting 16th however they find themselves in 13th. With sides below them under performing this could change soon and see Brighton fall to their expected position in the table.
Underachiever
Cardiff
Neil Warnock’s side have made a disappointing start to their Premier League campaign picking up just 2 points from their opening 8 games and their fans would be forgiven for being all doom and gloom however their could be something to be positive about. Despite being bottom of the table and winless they are creating chances. Cardiff have created 1.2 goals per game worth of chances on the expected goals metric however only been able to score 0.5 goals per game so far this season. At the other end their defence have offered up 1.8 goals per game worth of chances to the opposition however the other sides seem to be fortunate against Cardiff scoring on average 2.1 goals per game, over performing by 0.3 goals per game. If Cardiff can get their forwards firing they have a chance of moving up the table as they are creating chances.
Expected Points Table
Surprise packages
Bournemouth
Eddie Howe’s side have surprised fans, not necessarily with the brand of football being played but their results. Based on expected points they should be sitting 4th in the table, creating as many chances per game as Mauricio Pochettino’s Spurs side. The catalyst to this is their impressive front 3, Wilson, King and Fraser are the Premier League’s 3rd most productive attacking threat after Chelsea’s trio and Manchester City’s fearsome strike force. Callum Wilson has an expected goal involvement of 0.85 per 90 minutes whilst King 0.60 and Fraser 0.59 complete the trio. These 3 will be key to any possible European push this season as they are still conceding 1.5 goals per game.
Wolves
Wolverhampton Wanderers have been a breath of fresh air to the Premier League since their promotion from the Championship. This is largely down to their manager Nuno Espirito Santo’s reluctance to change style and the clubs relationship with super agent Jorge Mendes, who has been a key figure in getting the talent through the doors. The Wanderers have lost just one of their opening 8 Premier League games with 4 wins and 3 draws to boot. They are slightly inconsistent in front of goal, they are creating 1.5 goals per game worth of chances however only scoring 1.1 goals per game. This would usually be a problem for most newly promoted sides but Wolves are well drilled at the back, conceding just 0.8 goals per game. If Nuno can get his strike force making the most of their chances and keeps the defence solid, a European push is not beyond the realms of possibility. What a time to be a Wolves fan.
Disappointments
Newcastle
It’s hard not to feel sorry for Newcastle fans, not only do they have to watch Mike Ashley drain the club for every last penny, but the lack of resources are the cause of the poor football on show at the moment from the Magpies. Newcastle sit 19th in the table but based on expected points they should be 20th and by some margin. Imagine being 19th and still “over performing”. Whilst they are scoring 0.8 goals per game based on 0.9 goals per game worth of chances they are conceding just 1.6 goals per game when based on chances created by the opposition they should be conceding 1.9 goals per game. It’s easy to see Newcastle’s problem and that’s creativity however on top of that they lack a forward who can put the ball in the net. This begs the question why did they let Dwight Gayle and Aleksander Mitrovic go? The duo have bagged a combined 13 league goals for their new clubs this season, whilst Newcastle have managed just 12 goals in their last 14 Premier League games Long season ahead for the Magpies.
Fulham
We were really looking forward to watching Fulham in the Premier League, not only did they play an exciting brand of attacking football in the Championship, but they also bolstered their squad with £100m worth of new signings including Mitrovic, Seri, Schurrle, Mawson etc however so far The Cottagers have been a disappointment. They sit 17th in the table however based on expected points they should be sitting down in 19th. They are scoring 1.1 goals per game from an average of 1.2 goals per game worth of chances however their big problem is their defence. They conceded 2.4 goals per game worth of chances yet are finding themselves conceding at a rate of 2.6 per game. If they are to stay in the Premier League for another season they really need to tighten up their defence and create more chances for their star man Mitrovic up front.
Premier League football is back! We have a bumper weekend of Premier League action after the International break so make sure to check out our free betting tips and predictions.
Get in touch with us by emailing us at info@freesupertips.co.uk or tweet us on Twitter @FootySuperTips.
