Arsenal vs Napoli Predictions

They may have had to do it the hard way, but Arsenal eventually beat Rennes to the punch in the last round, as they run out comfortable winners at this venue. However, they were stunned by Everton at the weekend, so Unai Emery’s men may not be feeling at their most confident right now.

They were exposed on the road in the previous round, but at this venue, Arsenal delivered a commanding performance, as they scored three goals, conceded none, clocked 2.76 expected goals for and conceded just 0.35. Repeating such numbers against a very useful Napoli side won’t be easy, but such efforts are at least positive.

In truth, it’s tough to criticise what Arsenal have done at home in the Europa League this season. They made it through the group stages without tasting defeat on home soil, as they scored five goals, conceded two and kept two clean sheets. Furthermore, they made light work of beating both BATE and Rennes in front of their own fans. An average of 1.85 expected goals for and just 0.32 against suggests that Emery’s men have been very tough to face on their own patch.

Like Arsenal, Napoli have looked strong at home since entering the Europa League after the Champions League group stages, though their efforts on the road have been a bit suspect. When they played away against Zurich in the last-32, Carlo Ancelotti’s men won by three goals to one, while they looked strong going forward. Though they were weak at the back, as they shipped 1.92 expected goals. When playing away against Salzburg in the previous round, Napoli were well and truly exposed, as they conceded three goals and emerged with an expected goal difference of -1.18.

When we take Napoli’s away-day efforts in this competition and compare them with the efforts of Arsenal in front of a home crowd, it’s not at all difficult to envisage the hosts thriving on Thursday evening.

From a betting point of view, ‘Arsenal to Score Over 1.5 Goals’ stands out as a viable option. Napoli, who’ve already failed to shut out both Salzburg and Zurich during the knockout rounds, have surrendered an average of two goals and 2.1 expected goals on their travels, so Arsenal, who’ve averaged 2.2 goals for and 1.85 expected goals for at home look a decent bet to notch at least twice, especially at what appears to be a generous price.