Arsenal vs Valencia Predictions

After their victory in Naples, things have gone rapidly downhill for Arsenal, who come into this fixture off the back of three straight defeats. Not only have they lost each of their last three, but they’ve conceded at least three goals in each of those three matches. Such a stat is worrying ahead of a match against a very useful Valencia side.

Arsenal’s recent performances in the Premier League have been poor, there can be no denying that. Offensively, they’ve not been that brilliant, while they’ve simply been far too easy to get at defensively. They’ll need to provide greater resistance if they’re to stop Valencia, who looked very useful when scoring three goals away from home during the previous round.

However, while Unai Emery’s men have struggled domestically of late, their efforts in this competition have been pleasing, especially at home. During the last round, Arsenal made light work of scoring twice when hosting Napoli. On that occasion, they got at their Italian opponents, took plenty of shots and created an impressive 2.76 expected goals for. A the last-16 stage, Emery’s men scored three at home against Rennes, while they once again posted 2.76 expected goals for. Such numbers bode well ahead of Thursday’s match.

Valencia seemingly won well away from home during the last round, though they had the benefit of playing Villarreal, who’re located in the same region of Spain as the Bats, while it’s not as if they covered themselves in defensive glory. They won by three goals to one, but Marcelino’s men struggled to contain the hosts, who accumulated 16 shots and created 2.56 expected goals for. To be quite honest, the only reason Valencia didn’t concede more than once was because their hosts lacked end-product.

Not only did Valencia give up plenty of scoring opportunities away against Villarreal in the previous round of this competition, but they’ve also surrendered plenty on the road domestically of late. Last time out away from home, Valencia lost 3-2 away against Atletico, while they’ve conceded at least twice in three of their last seven travelling matches. Moreover, they’ve shipped expected-goals numbers of 1.8, 2.25, 1.84, 0.89 and 2.34 in their last five away matches in La Liga.

When we consider Valencia’s recent defensive numbers on the road in conjunction with the fact that Arsenal’s best attacking efforts have been delivered at home in this competition, the bet that catches the eye ahead of Thursday’s clash is ‘Arsenal to Score Over 1.5 Goals’.