Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Predictions, Betting Tips and Match Previews

20:00
12
Wanda Metropolitano

Atletico Madrid

Real Madrid

TNT Sports 3

Atletico Madrid Draw No Bet

Reason for tip

Atletico have had a tough week, but they’ve won 10 of their last 12 at home and three of their previous five home clashes with Real. For all their talent, Real have struggled at Spain’s top sides this term. Not only have they lost heavily to Barcelona twice, but they’re winless in five visits to the top eight, suffering defeats at Athletic Bilbao and Real Betis.

5/6odds when tipped

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Atletico Madrid 2-1

Reason for tip

Real have lost 2-1 twice on the road in La Liga this term against top six sides so back a reversal of last week’s 2-1 victory for los Blancos. Atleti looked comfortable with last week’s deficit late on and this Real side have already suffered losses at Lille and Liverpool in Europe. Atleti have won eight of their last nine home Champions League ties, picking up four 2-1 victories across their last six.

17/2odds when tipped

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Julian Alvarez To Score Anytime

Reason for tip

Julian Alvarez is keeping pace with Real’s top scorers in this competition, as last week’s first-leg strike was his seventh Champions League goal of the campaign. He’s scored five times across his last five appearances and he’s a good bet to strike against Real for the third time this season.

2/1odds when tipped

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Atletico Madrid have won 10 of their last 12 at home
The hosts have won eight of their last nine home Champions League matches
Real are winless away to Spain’s top eight and they’ve lost three of five trips to this ground

Atletico can fight back

Diego Simeone didn’t show a lot of ambition with his side 2-1 down at the Bernabeu last week, but I don’t think that’s evidence that Real have their quarter-final place wrapped up.

The visitors head to their cross-town rivals with a poor record in big games this term, despite last week’s win. Los Blancos are winless away to La Liga’s top eight so far this term, suffering two defeats in those five games.

Real have also fallen short in two clashes with Barcelona, while they’ve lost Champions League trips to Lille and Liverpool. The visitors were also outplayed in a visit to Atalanta earlier in the competition, while the 0.7 to 0.2 xG difference between these two sides last week shows that it wasn’t a dominant victory for Real.

Atletico Madrid have won 10 of their last 12 home matches since the beginning of November, and they’ve won eight of their last nine home Champions League ties. With Real losing three of their previous five visits to Atletico and given how they have little need for a win on the night with their aggregate lead, the host are the value here on the Draw No Bet market.