Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid Predictions

• Barcelona have won 12 of their last 15 home La Liga matches
• Barcelona have won the last five head-to-head meetings with Atletico Madrid
• Atletico Madrid have scored no more than once in six of their eight La Liga away games this season

Barca know how to beat Atletico

Atletico Madrid would make a major move in the La Liga title race if they beat an out-of-sorts Barcelona at the Olympic Stadium on Saturday. But that is what could have happened when the two teams collided in similar circumstances almost exactly a year ago and Barca prevailed 1-0.

Diego Simeone’s side went into that game riding a four-game winning streak while the hosts had lost two of their last six. This year, Atleti have won 11 straight games in all competitions and the Blaugrana have lost their last two at home, but it still doesn’t feel right to pick the visitors to win.

That’s probably because Barcelona have pretty much owned Atleti in head-to-head meetings over the past couple of years, winning the last five meetings – three of which finished 1-0.

Take the better odds about a Barca win

That sort of scoreline would not be a total surprise here either because, for all the confidence that an 11-match winning streak must bring, Atleti are still struggling to kill off opponents. Four of their last five La Liga wins have been secured by one-goal margins and two of them with winners scored after the 85th minute.

They showed trademark resilience in storming back to win from a goal down against Alaves and 3-1 down against Sevilla, but the fact that they have conceded early openers in four of their last eight league games would be a concern too.

Take advantage of the better odds about a Barca win after their two recent home upsets against Las Palmas and Leganes, both of which they dominated with similar expected goals figures of around 2.5 to their opponents’ 0.5.