Bayern Munich vs Bayer Leverkusen Predictions

• Xabi Alonso is unbeaten in six managerial meetings with Bayern
• Leverkusen won here in December and they dominated the meeting between the pair last month
• Leverkusen have suffered one defeat in 21 matches across all competitions, conceding in the last minute at Atletico Madrid
• Bayern have failed to win four of their five Bundesliga clashes with the top four this term

Bayern are vulnerable favourites

Bayern Munich have raced away at the top of the Bundesliga, but that doesn’t accurately reflect where these two teams are right now. The Bavarians struggled through a play-off game with Celtic in the last round, while Leverkusen backed up last season’s great European run with a sixth-placed finish in the League Phase.

Celtic generated more Expected Goals than Bayern in their first leg and they led 1-0 at the Allianz before conceding a last-gasp equaliser. The Scottish side missed good chances to double their lead, and Leverkusen should sense an opportunity to cause problems in this clash.

Alonso has the edge

Xabi Alonso has a brilliant record against Bayern as a manager, going unbeaten across all six encounters since taking charge in 2023. His first two visits to the Allianz finished level, before a 1-0 win in the German Cup in December.

Leverkusen’s most complete display against Bayern came just a couple of weeks ago. They prevented the Bavarians from getting a shot on target, while Alonso’s side hit the bar twice, generating 2.0 xG.

Vincent Kompany’s Burnley bossed the Championship before looking out of their depth in the Premier League. His early Bayern reign feels similar, with the Bavarians winning 18 of 19 Bundesliga clashes with sides fifth and below, while winning one of five encounters with the top five.

Bayern’s six Champions League wins this term have come against Celtic, Slovan Bratislava, Shakhtar and Dinamo Zagreb, along with 1-0 wins over Benfica and a PSG side who have massively improved since. Leverkusen had a tougher League Phase schedule, losing at Liverpool and Atletico. However, I don’t see Bayern being on the level of those two and Leverkusen are significantly better than the teams Kompany’s side have beaten.

Alonso looks to have Bayern tactically figured out, while I think an all-German tie plays into the visitors’ hands, given their Champions League inexperience and the domestic pressure that will fall on the Bavarians. A wake-up call was always likely for Bayern, given the circus their managerial appointment became last year. Their one-time first choice is the man to deliver it.