Benfica vs Belenenses Predictions

• Benfica have failed to cover a three-goal handicap in their last seven home league games.
• Belenenses have kept four clean sheets in their last seven league games.
• Benfica could rest starters ahead of next week’s decisive Champions League trip to face Liverpool at Anfield.

Belenenses can shut up shop at the Luz

Benfica should win Saturday’s Primeira Liga encounter with second-bottom Belenenses pretty comfortably, but there are signs that this won’t be the wide-margin victory the oddsmakers expect.

For a start, Belenenses are unbeaten in four games and will arrive in Lisbon with a full-strength squad fresh from a 2-0 home win over mid-table Portimonense. Franclim Carvalho has gradually turned his team’s fortunes around to the point where they now look like having a fighting chance of beating the drop.

A team that had conceded 41 in their first 21 league games – and seven in one half of football to Benfica back in November – have now kept four clean sheets in their last seven. It still may not be enough to avoid a defeat here, but value seekers need to consider the Belenenses +3 handicap very seriously.

Ignore the 7-0 in November, these clashes can be close

The Eagles have failed to cover a three-goal handicap in their last seven home league games and may be resting players ahead of next week’s decisive Champions League trip to face Liverpool at Anfield. Past head-to-head meetings, excluding that farce earlier this season when the hosts began with nine men because of a COVID-19 outbreak at the club, have typically been won by a two or three goal margin with Belenenses even claiming draws in two of the last eight league clashes.

Of course, Benfica could come out strong and wrap the game up with three goals in the first half and then rest big guns like Darwin Nunes for the Champions League quarter-final, but they have come unstuck when trying to enter cruise control before.

Put simply, we’d prefer to take Belenenses +3 than Benfica -1 at similar odds given the improving state of the visitors and the possible distraction that next Wednesday’s match provides. A 2-0 home success is the correct score selection here because Nelson Verissimo’s team have failed to hit more than two goals in six of their last seven home league games while Belenenses haven’t scored in seven of their last ten road trips.

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