Benfica vs Dinamo Zagreb Predictions

Facing Benfica was never going to be easy, though Croatian outfit Dinamo Zagreb certainly made good use of their home advantage in the first leg. Nenad Bjelica’s men defended well, while they took their chance when it came. Their lead is a slender one, though the fact that they denied the Portuguese outfit an away goal is a big positive.

Fortunately, Benfica only have a one-goal deficit to overturn, so they’re far from out of the competition, though if they are to progress, then they’ll have to do considerably better than they did in the first leg. On that occasion, Zagreb were head and shoulders above their opponents, as they had both double the shots and double the shots on target. Moreover, the fact that Dinamo emerged from the game with an expected goal difference of +1.41 suggests that they were good value for their victory.

In the first leg, Benfica really struggled to get going in the final third; they managed just two efforts on target, while they clocked a measly 0.31 expected goals for. On their own patch, Bruno Lage’s men ought to be capable of doing more, though their efforts at this venue in the previous round were far from encouraging. At home against Galatasaray, Benfica failed to score, while they created just 0.91 expected goals for.

Zagreb weren’t amazingly creative when playing on the road in the previous knockout round, as they clocked just 1.18 expected goals for away against Plzen, but they only conceded 0.98, so they may well be capable of going to Estádio da Luz and frustrating the hosts. If their efforts in the first leg are anything to go by, then the visitors can certainly keep things tight.

In addition to not allowing Benfica much last week, Zagreb posted some encouraging defensive numbers when playing on the road during the group stages. Thursday’s visitors shut both Anderlecht and Fenerbahce out away from home earlier in the competition, while they emerged from Group D having surrendered an average of just 1.18 expected goals. At the other end, they averaged 1.81.

Make no mistake about it, Benfica could easily do much better on their own patch, though when we take all the above into consideration, it’s difficult not to conclude that the visitors are somewhat overpriced. Zagreb proved that they can better Benfica last week, while the hosts were disappointing when drawing at home (when big favourites) against Galatasaray in the previous round. Add in the fact that Dinamo have looked useful away from home in this competition and the bet that stands out is ‘Dinamo Zagreb +1 Handicap’.