Borussia Dortmund vs Barcelona Predictions

• Barca have conceded a combined 11.0 xG in their last six Champions League games
• Dortmund conceded 28 shots to Bayern Munich at the weekend, with 11 on target
• Bayern won 3-2 at Dortmund in December, with Ferran Torres scoring twice

Champions League farewell for Dortmund

Trailing 4-0 after last week’s hammering, Borussia Dortmund’s Champions League exit looks inevitable. Their future in the competition is much less certain, as they sit eighth in the Bundesliga following a 2-2 draw with Bayern Munich on Saturday.

There’s a chance that this tie fizzles out, given Barca are set to rotate their side. While Dortmund’s focus will be on a late surge into the top four in the league, they should be aiming to restore some pride before exiting the Champions League.

Rotated Catalans can put on a show

Barcelona have little reason to risk their key players in this clash, but wholesale rotation is unlikely. A tweaked Barca lineup should ensure some entertainment at Signal Iduna Park on Tuesday, as their attacking approach has resulted in chances at both ends in Europe this term.

Barca conceded 1.4 Expected Goals in their dominant first leg win. The visitors have conceded 11.0 xG across their last six games in Europe. Among those was a 3-2 victory in Dortmund in December, in which the German side outplayed their opponents, winning the xG battle 2.7 to 2.0.

Ferran Torres was fantastic in that League Phase encounter, scoring twice in that victory. The Spaniard has been an important figure for Barca of late because of their fixture congestion. He hasn’t been given a lot of minutes, but the winger has scored five times across his last seven appearances. He’s set for extended minutes in this clash, so back the Spaniard to find the net.

Back goals in Dortmund

Barca’s success this season has been built on a daring approach, so it’s hard to see Hansi Flick’s side shutting up shop in the second leg. Even their rotated forward line can cause Dortmund problems, but changes at the back suggest they could struggle to keep the hosts out.

Barca tore through Dortmund last week, racking up 3.5 xG – so they were good value for their comprehensive victory. The hosts conceded 28 shots to Bayern at the weekend, with 11 of those on target. They remain vulnerable defensively, so over 3.5 goals is the best bet here.