Brentford vs Everton Predictions

• Fewer than three goals have been scored in eight of Everton’s last 10 away league trips
• Fewer than three goals have been scored in four of Brentford’s last six home games
• Brentford have failed to win their last five home Premier League matches while Everton have avoided defeat in four of their last five away league games

Bees back at base after four-goal flushing of Foxes

The stark contrast between Brentford’s recent home and away form makes them easier to oppose when a tough-to-beat Everton side make the trip to Gtech Community Stadium on Wednesday.

The Bees won their fourth Premier League away game in succession on Friday when they trounced Leicester 4-0 at King Power Stadium. Thomas Frank’s side were clinical, scoring with four of their six total shots on target, and exploited the team with the second-worst defensive record in the division.

But Brentford have found those type of performances harder to come by in west London since Christmas. They have taken only one point from their last five home league games and in January even contrived to lose to then-managerless Championship strugglers Plymouth Argyle in the FA Cup at the Gtech Community Stadium.

Toffees have been tough as teak on their travels

It is correct to argue that the Bees’ recent home slate has been a major factor in their paucity of points. The average league position of their last five visitors is currently 4.4 and is still 5.6 when taken at the date of each fixture.

However, if such a calculation were made of Everton’s last five away trips, a run where they have lost only once and picked up back-to-back wins, the results also tell a story.

The Toffees have come through a testing away run against teams that had an average league position of 7.6 then and 6.6 now. That suggests that they are a bit of value to avoid defeat away to a club that are currently placed 11th in the table.

Defences can dominate in midweek match

David Moyes’ men were unlucky not to beat Manchester United on Saturday after dominating for 70-odd minutes and being denied a stoppage-time penalty for what seemed like a needless VAR intervention.

They prevented United from creating anything of note from open play with the Red Devils’ two goals in the 2-2 draw coming from wonder-strikes following set-pieces. Everton look solid enough at the back to prevent the Bees’ forwards from getting much joy on Wednesday and this game is likely to be on a knife edge if it does not open up in midfield.

Likewise, none of the Bees’ last three opponents have managed to muster an xG of greater than 0.8 against them, so a low-scoring contest that may finish tied at 1-1 looks like an equally interesting way in.