Charlton vs Bradford Predictions

The Addicks were unable to make it three wins on the bounce last time out, though by drawing 0-0 away against Bristol Rovers, they maintained their current unbeaten run. It’s now seven matches since Lee Bowyer’s men tasted defeat. Such form means that Charlton look shoo-ins for a place in the play-offs, though they’re unlikely to rest on their laurels, as they look to build momentum ahead of their end-of-season shootout.

Charlton weren’t exactly at their sparkling best last time out, but they showed just why they’re on an unbeaten run that stretches back to late December. Going forward, Bowyer’s play-off contenders made little headway at Memorial Stadium when last in action, though they gave very little away, conceding just two shots on target and 0.77 expected goals.

Giving little away is something that the Addicks have become experts at, especially on their own patch, where they’re unbeaten in no less than 13 League One matches. Charlton have conceded in each of their last two at home, but they’ve not shipped more than a single goal in front of a home crowd since conceding twice against Coventry back in the first week of October. Saturday’s hosts have shipped an average of just 0.74 goals, while they’ve surrendered an average of 0.99 expected goals. They’ve scored an average of 1.53 and are averaging 1.63 expected goals for, which is why they’ve been able to emerge victorious from seven of their last ten at The Valley.

While Charlton have given little away at home this season, Bradford have surrendered a tremendous amount on their travels. Saturday’s struggling visitors have conceded an average of two goals per game, while they’ve also conceded an average of 2.34 expected goals, which tells us that teams have found it very easy to create scoring opportunities against the Bantams. At times, they’ve competed offensively, though they’ve been nowhere near good enough to make up for their dodgy back-line, which is why they have an average goal difference of -1.0 and an average expected goals difference of -1.03 on their travels.

It did look as though Bradford could pull themselves out of trouble at one point, but their recent form suggests that anything other than relegation is unlikely. Despite not always playing terrible, the Bantams have lost three on the bounce, while they’ve now lost five or their last six. Such a run has landed Gary Bowyer’s men in 24^th position, six points from safety.

In truth, this looks like an ideal opportunity for Charlton to continue moving towards a place in the play-offs. At the prices, the bet that stands out is ‘Charlton to Win & Under 3.5 Goals’. The Addicks have more than enough about them to see off a Bradford side that is heading for League Two, though the hosts show, time and time again, that they’re all about getting the job done, as opposed to being overly flamboyant. On this basis, they’re backed to keep things tight at the back before making the difference when it matters most, thus winning in relatively low-scoring fashion.