Chelsea vs Dynamo Kiev Predictions

Chelsea, winners of this competition in 2013, will be looking to extend their current winning run when they welcome Ukraine outfit Dynamo Kiev to Stamford Bridge on Thursday evening. Maurizio Sarri’s first season has certainly not been without complication, though the Italian manager has got his side winning of late, while they made light work of winning in front of a home crowd in the previous round of this competition.

Chelsea endured a few scares away in Sweden during the previous round, though they made light work of beating Malmo at Stamford Bridge, as they created a decent amount, clocking 1.64 expected goals for. They also gave little away, as they’ve conceded not a single shot on target and surrendered just 0.56 expected goals. A repeat of that effort on Thursday ought to see the Blues go to Ukraine off the back of a win.

They haven’t always shone in Europe this season, but Chelsea’s efforts at this venue have been tough to criticise. Sarri’s men have won each of their four home matches, scoring 11 goals and conceding just one in the process. Furthermore, they’re currently averaging a pleasing 1.73 expected goals for and are conceding just 0.43 at the other end. Such numbers tell us that they’ve had few problems creating, while they also show that the Blues have found it easy to prevent teams from getting serious in the final third.

While Chelsea have found it easy to deliver the goods at home in the Europa League this season, Kiev have struggled to be at their best on the road. Thursday’s visitors are yet to taste defeat away in Europe this season, though their performances have been far from encouraging. First time out in the groups, Dynamo drew 2-2 away against Czech side Jablonec, though the fact that they created just 0.52 expected goals for and shipped 1.32 tells us that they were fortunate. Much of the same can be said for their wins away against both Rennes and Astana. On the road during the previous round, Kiev drew 2-2 with Olympiakos, though as they clocked just 0.48 expected goals for, they were once again fortunate to find the net twice.

Frankly, this Thursday’s visitors have made a habit of getting results without playing particularly well on their continental travels this season, though their luck could run out on Thursday. Chelsea have shown themselves to be good at creating chances at home in this competition, while they’ve also found it easy to nullify their opponents.

In the betting, ‘Chelsea to Win to Nil’ stands out. The hosts have made a habit of giving few chances away at home, as an average of just 0.25 goals against and an average of 0.43 expected goals against suggest. Moreover, Kiev have struggled to be overly creative on the road, despite what some of their results may suggest. The visitors go to Stamford Bridge having posted very poor expected-goals for figures of 0.48, 0.25, 0.35 and 0.58 on their travels, which suggests that they’ll find it tough to make things happen against a side that has defended very well in front of their own fans.