Chelsea vs Eintracht Frankfurt Predictions

Chelsea’s task ahead of the first leg was not an easy one, though Maurizio Sarri’s men weren’t afraid of their German hosts, that’s for sure. Despite going a goal down, the Blues battled hard and earned a pleasing draw. Having both scored and avoided defeat on the road, Chelsea will fancy themselves to finish off the job now back on their own patch.

The result was of course pleasing, but it was all about the performance as far as Chelsea are concerned. To go away and dominate a side of Frankfurt’s quality is not easy, but the Blues made light work of dictating the game at Commerzbank Arena, so much so that they should be very confident of reaching the final.

By creating 1.44 expected goals for and conceding just 0.67, Chelsea showed that they can overcome Frankfurt in terms of creativity, while as they allowed their German hosts just a single shot on target in the first leg, they proved that they can nullify their opponents too.

If we consider the fact that Chelsea were clearly the better side in the first leg in conjunction with the fact that the Blues have looked very solid at home in this competition, then it becomes very easy to fancy the hosts to reach the final. On their own patch, Chelsea have won 100% of their Europa League matches this season, scoring an impressive 18 goals and conceding just four in the process. What’s more, they’ve averaged 1.95 expected goals for and have surrendered an average of just 0.38.

In contrast, Frankfurt haven’t exactly made light work of creating more than their opponents when playing away from home in this competition. Thursday’s visitors have lost just once away from home in the Europa League this season, but they haven’t been too convincing during the knockouts, as they’ve drawn against Shakhtar and lost against Benfica.

While Chelsea have created considerably more than their opponents at home, Frankfurt boast an average expected goal difference of just +0.12. Such a number doesn’t bode well, especially after they struggled in the first leg.

At the end of the day, Frankfurt have impressed in the Europa League this season, but the final looks as though it will be a step too far for the German outfit. They struggled to compete on their own patch last week, so it would be no surprise whatsoever if they came up short on Thursday.

In the betting, ‘Chelsea to Win to Nil’ catches the eye. Not only have the hosts given very few goals away on their own patch, but they did an excellent job of preventing Frankfurt from creating last week. Consider this alongside the fact that the Blues have surrendered an average of just 0.38 expected goals at home in the Europa League this season and backing the home win to come complete with a clean sheet stands out as a solid option.