Chelsea vs Watford Predictions

• Watford have scored in three of their five games against the top three.
• Watford scored in the reverse fixture, a 2-1 win for Chelsea.
• Chelsea have conceded in four of their last five home league games.
• Chelsea have scored at least three goals in each of their last four home games against the Hornets.

Little left to play for at Stamford Bridge

Chelsea and Watford meet at Stamford Bridge in a dead-rubber affair in the final round of Premier League fixtures.

The Blues are guaranteed to finish in third place after their 1-1 draw with Leicester on Thursday, barring an improbable swing in goal difference, while the Hornets are already relegated. Watford could still finish bottom of the standings, but that would require an unlikely win for Norwich at home to Tottenham.

Tuchel likely to tinker

Chelsea boss Thomas Tuchel will almost certainly rotate his starting XI for this season finale and there is simply no point in backing the hosts at such a short price for a game that could be played as if it were a pre-season friendly.

One market that has caught my eye is both teams to score, as the Hornets have tended to score against the league’s better teams.

Watford scored in the reverse fixture and they scored in both of their defeats to Manchester City, meaning they have scored in three of their five games against the top three this season.

Chelsea have only managed one clean sheet in their last five league games at home and as a number of the Watford players could be trying to put themselves in the shop window ahead of potential summer moves, the odds-against price on both teams to score looks a solid option for the main bet.

Chelsea win still the most likely outcome

Watford may have scored in three of their games against the top three but they lost all of those games. The Hornets have lost all nine of their games against the top five, so a Chelsea win is clearly the most likely result even if I am expecting the visitors to get on the scoresheet.

The Hornets have conceded a whopping 75 goals this season, an average of over two per-game, and as Chelsea have scored at least three goals in each of their last four home games against Watford a 3-1 win is the correct score pick.

It remains to be seen what team Tuchel will put out but if he does start an anytime effort from Kai Havertz looks a reasonable option. The German appeared as a late substitute in the draw with Leicester after a two-game absence and could be keen to finish the season strongly after missing the FA Cup final through injury.

Chelsea predicted lineup: Kepa, Azpilicueta, Rudiger, Sarr, James, Saul, Loftus-Cheek, Alonso, Ziyech, Barkley, Havertz

Watford predicted lineup: Foster, Ngakia, Kabasele, Troost-Ekong, Kamara, Sissoko, Kayembe, Gosling, Kalu, Pedro, Sema