Croatia vs Italy Predictions

• Croatia have one point from two games, having conceded five times
• The Croatians trailed for over an hour to Albania last time out
• Italy only need a point and can sit back and wait for Croatia to leave themselves open defensively
• Calafiori’s own goal is the only goal scored across Italy’s last 165 minutes of tournament action

Three sides battling to qualify

Croatia conceded a late equaliser to Albania last time out, leaving them in a tough position heading into their final group game. They need to win to have any chance of making the last 16, while their -3 goal difference could also hold them back.

Italy head into this clash knowing a point takes them through, despite not playing at their best in their opening two games. Italy beat Albania 2-1 without offering much after going ahead, while they were dominated in a 1-0 loss to Spain to sit second in Group B. With Albania still in the mix to finish second, expect plenty of twists and turns in the final night of action in this group.

End of the road for Croatia?

Croatia made the semi-finals of the World Cup less than two years ago, but the evidence from this tournament is that time has finally caught up with them. Croatia’s run in Qatar was built on being a brilliant defensive unit and it likely helped that the tournament came mid-season.

Their displays in Germany have lacked the assuredness of previous tournaments. While Croatia have been able to get plenty of possession, they have been poor defensively. With five goals conceded through their opening two games, they’ve looked too open to match their previous tournament highs.

Croatia have always had issues going forward, they’re usually more comfortable in knockout games when they can rely on a fantastic penalty shootout record. Forcing the issue has been a problem for this group of players, but the fact that they trailed for over an hour to Albania in their last game shows how this side has fallen. While they’ve got a squad packed with tournament experience, they find themselves in an unfamiliar spot which could count against them.

Scamacca can edge it for Italy

Croatia needing to win the game should see them forced to take the game to an Italian side that can qualify for the next round with a draw. Italy should sit back and be compact, looking to string together good moves on the counter as they did against Spain.

While Italy struggled to make a real breakthrough against the Spanish, they should find things easier against this Croatian defence. Luciano Spalletti is trying to get the Italians playing in a similar style to his fantastic, Serie A-winning Napoli team. While that will take time, he should still encourage his side to push forward when Croatia leave themselves too open at the back.

Given the chances that the Croatians have conceded so far, this could be a chance for Gianluca Scamacca to get on the scoresheet. He has had chances at this tournament and Albania scored both of their goals from around the penalty spot, while Spain consistently carved them up through the middle. Scamacca finished the season well for Atalanta in an attempt to prove his national coach wrong and he is a great candidate to help Italy shade a win over a Croatian side that doesn’t look up to the test here.