Eintracht Frankfurt vs Chelsea Predictions

After a disappointing first leg during the previous round, Frankfurt picked themselves up off the canvas and turned things around on their own patch. This time around, they’ll be playing in front of a home crowd before travelling abroad, so Adi Hütter’s men will be confident of getting off to a better start.

It looked as though Frankfurt had quite the task ahead of them prior to their quarter-final second leg, though the German outfit made light work of getting the better of Benfica at this venue, which is where they’ve looked very strong in Europe this season. Since the start of this competition, Die Adler have played six times in front of a home crowd. They’ve lost none of those six matches, five of which they’ve won. During that time, they’ve kept four clean sheets, have conceded just two goals and have scored an impressive 16.

Not only are Frankfurt’s basic stats at home in the UEL pleasing, but they also boast an impressive set of underlying figures. They average 2.1 expected goals for, while they’ve surrendered an average of only 0.97. Their performance against Benfica in the last round was particularly good, as they gave very little away, shipping just 0.49 expected goals, and offered a decent amount going forward, creating 1.46.

While Frankfurt have looked useful at home, Chelsea have been no slouches on their travels on the continent. The Blues have won five of their six travelling matches since the competition began back in September. They’ve scored an average of two goals, have conceded an average of just 0.5, while they average 1.71 expected goals for and have surrendered an average of just 0.63. Such numbers are strong, though it must be said that since the knockout rounds began, Chelsea have had an easier run than Thursday’s hosts.

During the knockouts, Frankfurt have faced Benfica, Inter and Shakhtar, while Chelsea have gone up against Malmo, Dynamo Kiev and Slavia Prague. What’s more, if we put Chelsea’s away-day efforts against Slavia up against Frankfurt’s home efforts against Benfica in the last round, then it’s easy to get behind the hosts at the current prices. The Blues stuttered their way to victory in Prague during the last round, as they won by a goal to nil, posting 0.7 expected goals for and conceding 0.57. In contrast, Frankfurt were far more dominant against a useful Benfica side.

Overall, there’s not a great deal between Chelsea’s efforts on the road and what Frankfurt have done at home, though given that it’s the German side that has faced tougher opposition and the fact that Thursday’s hosts impressed more at home during the previous round than the Blues did on the road, then it’s not terribly difficult to conclude that a bet on ‘Frankfurt to Win’ represents value.