FC Porto vs Roma Predictions

Two sides who lost to their biggest rivals on Saturday night are aiming to pick themselves back up. While Porto lost 2-1 against Benfica in the Primeira Liga, Roma were hammered 3-0 by Lazio in Serie A. That’s left the visitors struggling to make the top four in Italy, after that heavy loss to a top-six rival. Now the Giallorossi are potentially stepping out in the Champions League for the last time for another 18 months, as they face Porto in the second leg of this last 16 tie.

Porto’s league defeat knocked them off the top of the table, but they still have time to get back on track. Their main concern will be following up on a strong display in Rome by claiming a victory in the second leg. Their away goal at the Stadio Olimpico has put them in a strong position, as a 1-0 victory would be enough to send them into the next round. However, their 15 game winning run at this ground came to an end at the weekend, leaving Porto under pressure to bounce back.

It’s hard to call just which way this one will go. Porto are favourites for a home win, but Roma currently have the lead. Previous ties have been quite balanced, as 45.8% of the teams to have won 2-1 at home in the first leg of a Champions League knockout tie have progressed to the next round (11 out of 24). Roma now need a response, but their confidence has been shaken by their 3-0 weekend loss.

There’s little for the Giallorossi to be confident about on their travels in Europe. Roma have lost each of their last seven Champions League knockout stage matches away from home – the last time they won an away game in the KO stages came back in March 2008 against Real Madrid in the round of 16. In their last 10 trips, they’ve won three times – two of which were at Serie A’s bottom two. In their last five trips, they’ve conceded 13 times at Atalanta, Fiorentina and Lazio. After six defeats in seven away trips in this competition, we’re backing Roma to suffer another defeat here.

The absence of Vincent Aboubakar hit Porto earlier this season, but they had another forward step up in Europe. Moussa Marega hit five goals across the six group stage matches, before missing the first leg of this tie through injury. Marega returned to the side ahead of schedule, and he’s set to make an impact in this second leg. After scoring in each of their three home games in the group stage, we are backing Marega to find the net on Wednesday. We’re going with Marega to score anytime, as he should fire his side to a victory.