FK Krasnodar vs Akhisar Belediye Predictions

Having won three of their first four matches in Group J, Krasnodar have acquitted themselves well on the continent. The Russians will now be looking to secure a fourth win, a win that would guarantee their place in the knockout rounds.

If we look at the standings in Group J, then it easy to assume that Krasnodar have been playing well, though if we dig a little deeper, it’s not difficult to conclude that the Russians are fortunate to be sitting pretty with nine points.

When the teams met in the reverse fixture, on the balance of play, Krasnodar were lucky to emerge with all three points, as they fact that they came out on the game with a -0.1 expected goal difference suggests. They were also very fortunate to avoid a real beating when playing away in Liege. However, while their performances haven’t always been great, Murad Musayev’s men have delivered a couple of decent performances in front of a home crowd.

On their own patch, Krasnodar have taken maximum points, scoring four goals and conceding two in the process, while they’ve accumulated a respectable 3.45 expected goals and have given up 2.34 at the other end.

If Krasnodar are a bit fortunate to have nine points after four matches, then Akhisar can certainly count themselves unfortunate to still be pointless. The Turkish outfit have rarely looked like winning, though they’ve offered more than the bare results suggest. From a forward point of view, as they’re averaging a useful 1.41 expected goals in this competition, Cihat Arslan’s men have certainly competed, though they’ve been let down by a lack of defensive solidity.

Defending, or more specifically keeping clean sheets, has been a problem for the visitors, and it is their defensive frailties that could cost them against on Thursday. The Turkish side are yet to keep a clean sheet in this competition, while they’ve given up a worrying average of 1.77 expected goals. On the road, they’ve surrendered 2.27 on average, which doesn’t exactly bode well ahead of a match against a side that has attacked well on home soil.

For all the hosts haven’t been quite as impressive as the group table suggests, they have looked good on home soil, especially from an attacking point of view, which bodes well ahead of this one. Against a visiting team that has given plenty away on the road, the hosts are backed to thrive in the final third, though expecting them to do so without encountering a few defensive problems of their own may not be wise.

At the prices, the bet that stands out is ‘Krasnodar to Win & Both Teams to Score’. The Russians have the quality to overpower their visitors, though they’ve not kept things overly tight in Group J, while both Liege and Sevilla managed to find the net at this venue. Add in the fact that Akhisar have offered quite a bit more offensively than the group table suggests and it’s easy to feel that there’s a small slice of value to be had by combing a home win with ‘Both Teams to Score’.