FK Krasnodar vs Valencia Predictions

As the game at Mestalla entered its final 30 minutes, Krasnodar needed to find a goal from somewhere, and find a goal they did, as Viktor Claesson fired home from close range. Losing 2-0 would’ve been a bad result for the Russians but getting an away-goal means that they’ve now got a very decent chance of progressing to the next round.

Krasnoadar did come off second best in Spain last week, but they were far from battered, as the result suggests. Offensively, they didn’t muster too much, though they didn’t give an amazing amount away. In truth, they were perhaps lucky to find the net after clocking just 0.59 expected gals for, but then again, they were unlucky to ship twice having given away just 1.25 expected goals. All in all, a 2-1 score-line wasn’t the worst result for the Russians, who’ll fancy themselves in front of a home crowd.

Russia is never an easy place for western European teams to go, so it’s no surprise that Krasnodar are unbeaten in front of a home crowd in the Europa League this season. During the groups, Murad Musayev’s men won three out of three at this venue, beating Sevilla, Standard Liege and Akhisar. Going forward, they scored an average of two goals per game, while they also accumulated an average of 1.47 expected goals for. More impressively, Krasnodar conceded an average of just 0.93 expected goals during the groups, while they also shipped just 1.1  when keeping a clean sheet at home against Leverkusen in the first knockout round.

When Valencia went away to Celtic in the previous round, despite scoring twice, they certainly didn’t sparkle offensively, as they managed just six shots and clocked a rather subdued 0.96 expected goals. If we consider this alongside the fact that they managed to record just 1.25 in front of their own fans in the first leg of this tie, then it’s easy to see Thursday’s hosts keeping things tight at the back.

Valencia were marginally the better team in the first leg, but since they failed to outclass their opponents on home soil, it’s not difficult to envisage Marcelino’s men struggling on the road against a side that is very good on their own patch. Not only did Krasnodar deliver three pleasing home efforts during the group stages of this seasons’ Europa League, but they’ve also beaten sides such as Fenerbahce, Nice and Dortmund at home in recent years, so they’re no mugs.

Ultimately, when we consider the fact that Krasnodar are strong on home soil, coupled with the fact that Valencia failed to create an overly positive impression away against Celtic in the previous round, it’s easy to feel that the hosts are a tad overpriced. Backing the Russians to come out on top in their own backyard is the best option.