Hamburg vs Magdeburg Predictions

Things haven’t exactly gone to plan for Hamburg of late; they’ve failed to win their last two in the league, one of which they lost. However, they did reach the semi-finals of the DFB Pokal just a few days ago, so they ought to come into this match with renewed confidence. The title is very much Koln’s to lose at this stage, though Hannes Wolf’s men can keep themselves in the race with a win on Monday evening.

In terms of recent league results, Hamburg have struggled a tad, though it’s easy to feel that they’ve been slightly unlucky. Monday’s hosts failed to beat Bochum last time out, drawing 0-0 away from home, but their efforts probably merited victory, as they offered more than their opponents in all departments, clocking 1.38 expected goals for and conceding just 0.46. Similarly, when they emerged with an expected goal difference of +0.60, Wolf’s men were unfortunate to lose against Darmstadt in their last home match.

Prior to their defeat against Darmstadt, which was somewhat unjust, Hamburg had won four on the bounce at home, conceding just one goal in the process. Offensively, Monday’s hosts haven’t been as forthcoming as someone like Koln, as an average of 1.23 goals scored at home suggests, but they’ve done a very good job of scoring important goals and creating more than their opponents. Hamburg have bettered their opponents in terms of expected goals in each of their last four at home, as well as in seven of their last eight.

Hamburg have looked relatively solid at home in recent times, though they’re not the only ones who’ve kept things reasonably tight. Even on their travels, Magdeburg have been tough to beat in recent times. Sunday’s visitors have avoided defeat in three of their last four on the road, two of which they’ve won, while they’ve conceded just three goals in those four.

Not only have Magdeburg got plenty of pleasing results away from home in recent times, but they’ve done an excellent job of preventing their opponents from creating an awful lot, as they’ve shipped expected-goals figures of 0.35, 0.52, 1.17 and 0.67. That said, they’ve not been overly menacing in terms of creativity, offering numbers of just 0.66 and 0.81 in their last couple of outings on the road, while their average of 1.11 isn’t exactly impressive.

From a betting point of view, ‘Under 2.5 Goals’ grabs the attention at the current prices. Hamburg have the quality to come out on top at home, as they so often do, but they’re not known for blowing teams away, while both sides have tended to keep things reasonably tight. With the pair conceding a combined average of just 2.11 expected goals in their last five respective home and away, supporting a low-scoring encounter is the way to go.