Inter Milan vs Bayern Munich Predictions

• Inter have won 19 of 23 home games this season
• The Nerazzurri have won all five home games in the Champions League this term
• Bayern have lost three of six away games in Europe so far
• Calhanoglu has scored in three of Inter’s last five home games in this competition

Can Bayern turn the tie around?

Inter Milan won 2-1 in Munich last week, putting them in a strong position going into Wednesday’s second leg. The Italian champions are still in the running for a treble this season, strengthened by back-to-back victories over the last seven days.

Inter fell short in Europe last season but they’re looking dangerous in this season’s Champions League. They’ve got an impressive defensive record and they’ve made their home ground a fortress, which leaves Bayern in a difficult spot as they look to turn this tie around.

How will Nerazzurri approach it?

It’s easy to assume that the Italian side will look to hold firm and protect their aggregate lead, but Inter could be more ruthless here. The hosts are aiming to continue a fantastic record at their own ground, having failed to win only four of 23 home games across all competitions this term.

Inter have won all five home games in the Champions League this term, overcoming Arsenal, RB Leipzig, and Feyenoord. They’ve won 12 of their previous 14 home games in this competition, including nine of their last 10.

While Bayern are aiming to get back into this tie, they’ve lost half of their away trips in the Champions League this season. They’ve been beaten at Aston Villa, Barcelona, and Feyenoord. That record makes the German side look vulnerable, despite entering this clash as slight favourites with the bookies.

Hosts can edge it

Bayern are missing some key players at the back, which could really work against them here. They’re going to be vulnerable at the back, while they’re heading to an Inter side who aren’t likely to give much away. The hosts have conceded just 4.1 Expected Goals across four home matches in this competition, so they can keep this tight and then catch out Bayern’s weakened backline.

Inter look well-placed to see out the second leg with a victory. Four of the eight last 16 ties saw the same team win home and away, three of which won the first leg on the road. That includes Inter and the Italian side are backed to repeat the trick on Wednesday.

Turkish midfielder Hakan Calhanoglu stands out in the goalscorer market here, having netted in three of Inter’s five home matches in the Champions League this term. He’s scored seven of his 10 goals in all competitions at home, while he netted a key goal in the Milan derby earlier this month.