Leeds vs Harrogate Town Predictions

• Fewer than four goals have been scored in 11 of Leeds’ last 13 home games and Harrogate’s last 13 away matches
• Leeds have won nine of their last 10 home games while Harrogate have lost three of their last five away matches
• Willy Gnonto has scored three goals in six FA Cup starts for Leeds

Whites face cup banana skin

Saturday’s FA Cup third-round game between Leeds United and Harrogate Town is a potential banana skin for the Championship leaders. On paper, few would give Harrogate a chance.

They are entrenched in a League Two relegation battle and will be playing away at a ground Leeds have turned into a fortress for the past couple of years. The Whites have won nine of their last 10 home games, only slipping up with a 1-1 draw against Blackburn when they last played hosts.

Daniel Farke’s side are scoring goals and playing good football, but they can get a bit nervy and sloppy when they have the lead – which is what allowed Blackburn and Hull to come back and draw against them recently.

Oppose goals from Farke’s fringe men

Farke will almost certainly make several changes to his line-up in the belief that his back-up and fringe players can do the job at home. That could encourage Simon Weaver’s side, who halted a seven-game winless run by beating Barrow 2-0 away last weekend.

Harrogate will have to keep it tight to have any chance of forcing extra-time or penalties, which is probably all they can seriously hope for on Saturday.  They managed to keep a much-changed Wrexham side at arm’s length for long spells in their first-round win over the League One promotion-chasers and will use that as their blueprint again.

Opposing goals might be the way to go here because Leeds look too short in the betting at 1/14. Even taking the Whites to cover a -1 handicap is unattractive at 1/4 given they only beat Shrewsbury 2-1 in the League Cup a couple of seasons ago and needed extra-time in a replay to put a struggling Plymouth side out in the FA Cup fourth round last season.

Fewer than three goals have been scored in 11 of Leeds’ last 13 home games and Harrogate’s last 13 away matches.