Monaco vs Braga Predictions

• Monaco have won two of their three home Europa League contests in 2021-22.
• Braga have lost three of their four away Europa League games this season.
• Monaco dominated the first leg in terms of possession, xG and passes completed in the opposition half.
• Gelson Martins tormented Braga in the first leg and has been Monaco’s best player in their last three games.

Braga rarely bring their best to Euro away dates 

Monaco should redress the balance of their Europa League last-16 tie with Braga on Thursday night, but a two-goal deficit will be a lot to overturn in 90 minutes. Phillipe Clement’s side dominated the first leg in Portugal, but committed defensive errors that have left them with what could turn out to be too much to do at the Stade Louis II.

The hosts are hot favourites at around 1/2 to win in the Principality – probably because they looked to have the ability and gameplan to win the first leg a week ago.  Monaco held the upper hand in terms of possession (62% to 38%), xG (1.73 to 1.41), passes completed in the opposition half (206 to 82) and tackles won (11 to 5) in a strong team performance that just lacked any goals.

Braga keeper Matheus was the fly in the ointment as he made a series of good saves, including on a couple of one-on-one situations. Whether he can replicate that display of Monaco are in the mood again remains to be seen, but he hasn’t let Carlos Carvalhal down in recent weeks.

Martins has been Monaco’s leading light

Gelson Martins was the player who caused Braga the biggest issues in that first leg as he finished with three shots, two chances created, two completed dribbles and 33 passes completed at 82% accuracy. The Portuguese winger, who scored in Monaco’s win at Marseille earlier this month, has been a shining light for the Ligue 1 side recently and looks worth a bet in the anytime goalscorer market.

The best bet for the match is still Monaco to win, despite being relatively short odds, because Braga are poor travellers and suffered a home defeat to Gil Vicente at the weekend. Monaco also lost to leave them languishing in mid-table again, so the Europa League takes on even greater significance for them in terms of getting back into the Champions League next season.

The 2-0 scoreline that would take this tie to extra time looks backable in correct score betting because Braga failed to score away to Sheriff in a 2-0 defeat in the last round and Monaco have scored at least two goals in ten of their last 14 home contests in all competitions.