Nurnberg vs Hamburg Predictions

After dropping out of the top division at the end of the previous campaign, Nurnberg would’ve been looking to make a positive start to 2. Bundesliga life last weekend, and that’s exactly what they did by beating Dresden away from home. In contrast, Hamburg, who’ll also be looking to compete at the very top of Germany’s second division, failed to get the job done first time out, as they drew 1-1 with Darmstadt.

It was a disappointing return to the Bundesliga for Nurnberg last term, though at this level, they’re a powerful force, so there’s every reason for Sunday’s hosts to feel optimistic about the season ahead.

However, while Nurnberg should do well this time around, there wasn’t too much to like about their opening-day efforts, even though they walked away with all three points. It was of course the first game of the season, so we probably shouldn’t focus too heavily on the performance, though the fact that Der Club were on the back foot throughout was disappointing, as was the fact that they registered just five shots, only two of which hit the target. They may have beaten Dresden by a goal to nil, though nine times out of ten, 0.45 expected goals for won’t be enough, so improvement in the forward areas is needed.

Defensively, Nurnberg were better. Despite allowing their opponents plenty of possession/territory, the promotion-hopefuls looked relatively comfortable, as they restricted Dresden to just three shots on target and 0.84. On the balance of play, their win was certainly fortunate, though their overall defensive efforts were strong.

Hamburg didn’t get the job done first time out, but they were a bit unlucky. In truth, there wasn’t too much wrong with the efforts of Dieter Hecking’s men. Going behind didn’t help, though they still created far more than their opponents, as they posted 2.45 expected goals for and conceded only 0.99. An expected-goal supremacy of +1.46 will be enough to take all three points more often than not, so Hamburg’s failure to beat Darmstadt shouldn’t be viewed too harshly.

As far as this game is concerned, neither team make any great appeal in the Win/Draw/Win market, though ‘Over 2.5 Goals & Both Teams to Score’ does stand out.

Nurnberg, who created 1.94 expected goals for against PSG in their final pre-season game, weren’t great going forward on match-day one, but they’re likely to be far more cavalier on their own patch, while with players such as Dovedan, Hack, Medeiros, Schleusener and Ishak in their ranks, they’re not short of either creativity or firepower. Add in Hamburg’s encouraging attacking efforts last week, coupled with the fact that they too have stacks of forward quality at this level and it’s easy to feel that the possibility of a relatively high-scoring game has been slightly underestimated by the early market.