PSG vs Bayern Munich Predictions

• PSG have averaged 2.6 goals per game across their last 32 home games in this competition
• The French side have won six of their last 11 clashes with Bayern
• The visitors have won just once across their five visits to Paris in this competition
• Messi has scored 10 goals across his last 13 games for club and country.

Trouble in Paris

PSG have had a tough start to 2023 and as the Champions League returns they head into Europe on the back of consecutive defeats. Losses at Marseille and Monaco have dented the shine on the French champions this term, but it’s dangerous to write them off heading into arguably the tie of the round.

These two sides met in the 2020 final and went head-to-head again in the 2021 knockouts. The French giants have put up a real fight against their German counterparts across those meetings. In fact, among teams who have faced Bayern Munich 10+ times in the Champions League, PSG are the team with the highest win percentage against them, with six wins in 11 encounters. Can that record stay intact on Tuesday night?

PSG need home advantage

The hosts have lost successive away games ahead of this clash, but their home form is incredibly consistent. The hosts have won seven of their last eight at home, only dropping points thanks to a last-minute goal against a Reims side who are on a tear under young English coach Will Still.

Paris Saint-Germain have only lost one of their five home games against Bayern Munich in the Champions League, with that defeat coming in their 2021 quarter-final clash. However, PSG were already 3-2 up and had the edge on away goals, so they weren’t exactly desperate to get back on terms in that 1-0 loss.

While PSG’s shaky form has seen Bayern installed as favourites, it’s worth remembering that the visitors have failed to win half of their games since returning to action. They’ve seen off some average to poor teams since, while they haven’t won a knockout tie against an elite side in this competition since 2020.

Messi to deliver for hosts

Paris Saint-Germain have only failed to score in one of their last 32 home games in the Champions League, averaging 2.6 goals per game. The only time they failed to score was in that Bayern clash when they cared more about not conceding, so there’s plenty of reason to believe that the hosts can edge this clash.

PSG have won six of their last seven home games in this competition, which includes victories over Man City, Juventus and Real Madrid. The appointment of Christophe Galtier looks to have made them more disciplined for big games, so even with Kylian Mbappe out I can see a positive result for the hosts.

PSG of course have Lionel Messi to rely on and the Argentine scored four goals across his last four group games, while he’s scored 10 goals and made three assists across his last 13 games for club and country. He can make the difference in this clash, so back Messi to score anytime.

Finally, PSG are the only side left in the last 16 without a clean sheet in this competition so far. It’s hard to see them stopping Bayern completely, so look to a 2-1 home win which would set this tie up for a tense return in Bavaria.

Best PSG vs Bayern Munich betting offers