RB Leipzig vs Atletico Madrid Predictions

• Half of Leipzig’s last eight Champions League goals have been penalties
• Atletico Madrid went 11 games unbeaten in the run-in, including six wins to nil
• The Spaniards have always progressed from knockout clashes with German sides in this competition
• Atleti have kept four clean sheets in their last seven in Europe

Experience vs Upstarts

Could this tournament in Lisbon represent the best chance for Atletico Madrid to finally lift the Champions League? They have to be contenders after landing a favourable draw, given their great consistency in this competition. The Spaniards have reached the quarter-finals of the UEFA Champions League for the fifth time in the last seven seasons, a feat only Barcelona and Bayern Munich have bettered over the same period.

Meanwhile, this is just Leipzig’s 15th Champions League game. While they have big ambitions, this clash may come too early for Julian Nagelsmann and his team. After all, there’s a clear gulf in the Bundesliga when their teams step out on the biggest stage. No German side outside of Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund has reached the semi-finals of the Champions League since Schalke in 2010/11. Our predictions back that run to continue.

Leipzig limited

Not only do the German side like crucial experience ahead of a big-game clash like this, but they’ve also seen some limitations in their play this season. They progressed against a Tottenham side managed by Jose Mourinho, who hasn’t won a Champions League knockout tie since 2014. There is a feeling they’re slightly punching above their weight.

Four of RB Leipzig’s last eight goals in the UEFA Champions League have come from the penalty spot, having gained the second-highest number of spot-kicks in the competition this term. Their attacking threat has been further diminished with Timo Werner exiting early to join Chelsea, leaving this Leipzig side looking short going into the clash.

It’s important to remember that Leipzig finished their campaign in late June, claiming just two wins in their final five games. They limped over the line to get top four, as opposed to an Atletico side who look back to their best.

Atletico to edge it

The Spaniards went 11 games unbeaten to secure a top-four finish in La Liga. Of their final 10 games, six of them were won to nil. Atletico look much more solid, while they’ve got the attacking talents to punish Leipzig. They showed in their success over Liverpool that they can return to their pragmatic best when required, which gives them the edge over the Germans.

Atletico Madrid have always progressed against German opposition in the knockout stages of the UEFA Champions League (vs Leverkusen in 2014/15 and 2016/17; vs Bayern Munich in 2015/16). In the European Cup era (pre-1992/93), the only time they didn’t prevail was in the 1974 final against Bayern Munich (1-1; 0-4 replay). We are backing that to continue, as our tip here is an Atletico victory.

With the Spanish side looking strong at the back, we’re going with a 1-0 Atletico Madrid victory as our correct score prediction. We doubt Leipzig’s ability to break down an Atleti side who have four clean sheets in their last seven European games, while the Spaniards have the likes of Alvaro Morata and Joao Felix to help them edge it.

Our Atletico Madrid to win tip also appears on out exclusive 35/1 #OddsOnThat selection with Betfair – check out the rest of our four-fold here.