Real Madrid vs Manchester City Predictions

• Manchester City, who lost the first leg 3-2, have scored two or more goals in five of their last six away games
• City have scored at least two goals in seven of their last nine away Champions League matches
• Real Madrid have not kept a clean sheet in their last eight UCL games at home, shipping two or more four times
• Kylian Mbappe has scored 11 goals in his last 10 appearances for Real Madrid

Gonzalez seems to solve City’s Rodri problem

Manchester City head to Estadio Bernabeu on Wednesday knowing that only a win will keep them in the Champions League as they seek to overturn a 3-2 first-leg deficit against holders Real Madrid. Last week’s game in Manchester was a rollercoaster for both clubs with Carlo Ancelotti initially looking like he had the upper hand over an unbalanced City side before Pep Guardiola’s gameplan began to take shape.

The final five minutes of the game proved decisive, however, as two moments of defensive madness from City left them with a mini mountain to climb in Madrid. Guardiola’s tactical options have been reduced by injuries to three starters from the first leg: Jack Grealish, Manuel Akanji and Nathan Ake.

But he finally appears to have solved the biggest issue his side have faced this season — replacing injured Ballon d’Or winner  Rodri — with new signing Nico Gonzalez impressing in the midfield pivot role against Newcastle on Saturday.  Suppose the Spaniard retains his place in the side. In that case, John Stones will probably partner Ruben Dias, who was not fit enough to start against the Magpies, in central defence with Rico Lewis slotting in at right-back and Phil Foden replacing Grealish in the only other changes from the first leg.

Los Blancos have buckled in this situation before

While City warmed up for their mission in Madrid by spanking a good Newcastle side 4-0, Real Madrid were held to a 1-1 draw by Osasuna in La Liga last weekend.  Los Blancos could have  won the match in the first 30 minutes if they had taken their chances but only had Kylian Mbappe’s strike to show for their early dominance. Jude Bellingham was sent off for speaking out of turn to the referee before half-time and they were made to pay when Ante Budemir levelled from the spot in the second half.

Ancelotti’s side have failed to win three of their last five games and, despite their impressive recovery job in Manchester, do not look worth siding with at an odds-on price in a match where a draw will see them progress.

In their last five return legs at home where they have achieved victory on foreign soil, Ancelotti’s team have won two, drawn one and lost two. They have also lost three of their last eight Champions League games, including a 3-1 reverse to AC Milan at the Bernabeu in the League stage a few months ago.

Value in goal markets is with the visitors 

However, Manchester City have lost their last three Champions League away games and may require something superhuman to outlast a Real Madrid side who refuse to be beaten in this competition.

The goal markets are skewed towards this being very high-scoring and for good reason with the likes of Erling Haaland and Mbappe on the pitch. The Frenchman, who has played just 113 minutes of international football since last summer’s Euro Finals, looks fresher than most at the moment and his record of 11 goals in his last 10 club appearances suggests he is worth backing as an anytime goalscorer here.

But the real value could be in backing City to score two or more goals. Guardiola’s side have to go for it because a draw is no good and they have form for bagging multiple goals on the road in Europe.  They have scored at least two goals in seven of their last nine away Champions League matches while Real Madrid have not kept a clean sheet in their last eight European games at the Bernabeu, shipping two or more four times.