Red Bull Salzburg vs Napoli Predictions

Ahead of the first leg, Salzburg would’ve been hoping to leave Naples with something to show for their efforts, but they were sadly beaten 3-0 and are thus in a very poor position. Unless they can batter the Italians in Austria on Thursday evening, which doesn’t seem likely, then they won’t be gracing the quarter finals with their presence.

The score-line would suggest that Salzburg failed to compete in Naples, though it must be said that the Austrians were unfortunate. They lacked end-product, which is never a good thing against a side of Napoli’s quality, but the fact that they emerged from the game with an expected goal difference of just -0.43 suggests that they were desperately unlucky to lose by three goals to nil. Moreover, the fact that they recorded 1.46 expected goals for tells us that they created more than enough to score an all-important away goal.

The position that they find themselves in is a poor one, though Salzburg are no strangers to beating teams at home in this competition, so they may just fancy themselves to put up a fight on Thursday evening. After all, despite what the score-line would have us believe, they were far from outclassed last week.

At home during the group stages, Salzburg made light work of beating Celtic, Rosenborg and Leipzig. They scored an impressive seven goals and conceded just one, as they averaged a mammoth 2.77 expected goals for and conceded an average of just 0.54. In addition, they also battered Club Brugge at this venue in the first knockout round, winning by four goals to one. Napoli are a good side, but if the hosts can match their recent home performances in this competition, then there’s no reason as to why they cannot give Carlo Ancelotti’s men a real run for their money.

Aside from getting slightly lucky in the first leg of this tie, Napoli were far from convincing away against Zurich in the previous round. Again, they had the edge in terms of both end-product and individual quality, but they failed to keep a clean sheet, while they were bettered in terms of expected goals, recording 1.92 and conceding 2.16. Their efforts on that occasion won’t fill Napoli fans with great confidence ahead of this fixture.

From a betting point of view, the standout selection is ‘Salzburg to Score Over 1.5 Goals’. The Austrians were unlucky not to score in the first leg, while Napoli were far from impressive from a defensive point of view when presenting Zurich with lots of scoring chances in Switzerland in the previous round. Add in the fact that Salzburg are averaging 2.62 expected goals for at home in the Europa League this season and a bet on Thursday’s hosts to notch twice makes plenty of appeal, especially at the prices.