Tottenham Hotspur vs Ajax Predictions

In any other season, Tottenham would be the surprise package in the Champions League semi-finals. This Spurs side had the role of underdog snatched from them in the 2015 Premier League title race, this season it’s Ajax who are the neutral’s favourite as Europe’s top competition reaches the final four. However, can we really view Ajax as outsiders? They have a squad full of talents destined to star for Europe’s biggest sides. On top of that, they’re facing a weakened Spurs team, arguably making them favourites for the tie.

The stats certainly back up the Dutch side in this one. They have a fantastic record in the semis of this competition, up there with the best in the continent. Of sides to have appeared in at least five European Cup/Champions League semi-finals, only Benfica (7/8 – 87.5%), AC Milan (10/12 – 83.3%) and Liverpool (8/10 – 80%) have a higher progression rate to the final than Ajax (6/8 – 75%). However, the Dutch side are playing in their first Champions League semi-final since 1996-97, when they lost to Juventus.

Ajax may be the neutral’s favourite, but the four-time European champions aren’t the new name at this level. Tottenham are looking to become the 40th different team to reach the final of the European Cup/Champions League, and the eighth different English side. The last team to reach the final for the first time were their London rivals Chelsea in 2008. Sides from England’s capital have reached the final of this competition only three times, winning just once. Should Spurs get through, it would be an incredible achievement.

After knocking out both Real Madrid and Juventus, Ajax became the first side in European Cup/Champions League history to progress from two different knockout rounds within the same campaign when failing to win their first leg at home. The big question now is over their ability to handle playing at home second. While it’s considered easier by many, some sides are suited to attacking on the road. That’s a trait which we’ve seen with Ajax this season, while we expect them to continue to attack in this one.

Given that these are two young, attacking sides who are surprise contenders for European glory, there’s a fresh feeling about this semi-final. We don’t expect a stalemate given the quality they both have. Spurs may be without Harry Kane and Son Heung-min, but they have other attacking options along with the home support pushing them on. Spurs can’t afford to sit back against an Ajax side who have so much control and flair on the ball. We also think Tottenham to be forced to go forward, as we expect Ajax to score here.

The visitors have 111 goals to their name in the Eredivisie, while they’ve hit 19 in 10 matches in the Champions League. This Spurs side also have a poor defensive record in big games – they’ve failed to keep a clean sheet at home to any of the Premier League’s top five. All of Tottenham’s home league games against the top 11 sides have seen them fail to keep a clean sheet. Ajax have won 4-1 at Real Madrid and a 2-1 at Juventus this term, along with a 3-3 draw at Bayern. We expect them to get forward here. We’re going with over 2.5 goals as a result, especially with the Dutch coming here with a week off to prepare for this huge trip.

We expect a lot from this Ajax attack after their weekend rest, especially given how prolific they’ve been this term. Only Lionel Messi (13) has been directly involved in more Champions League goals this season than Ajax’s Dusan Tadic (9 – 6 goals, 3 assists). He’s scored in Madrid and Munich this season, while the former Southampton man has 24 league goals to his name. He scored at Spurs in the Premier League last term, but we see him grabbing a much more important strike in this one.