Valencia vs Arsenal Predictions

Valencia would’ve been hoping to return with an away-goal, which they did, though they would’ve wanted to go back to Spain without being behind. By losing 3-1 on the road, the Bats aren’t out of it, but they’ve given themselves something of a mountain to climb. As things stand, Thursday’s visitors have the upper hand.

The score-line would suggest that Valencia were easily bettered by their opponents in the first leg, though if we dig a little deeper, it’s easier to feel that the pair were more evenly matched than the result leads us to believe. Defensively, as they shipped three goals and 1.88 expected goals, they weren’t great, though nor were Arsenal. Moreover, as the Bats created 1.74, it’s fair to say that they didn’t deserve to lose by two goals.

Thursday’s hosts aren’t short of attacking quality, so they’ll fancy themselves to turn things around on their own patch, though their previous efforts at Mestalla in this competition haven’t been overly impressive. They could only manage a 1-0 victory against Celtic, while they beat Krasnodar by a single-goal margin too. During the previous round, Valencia beat Villarreal 2-0 at this venue. A repeat of that score-line on Thursday would be enough for the Bats, though they had the benefit of holding a first-leg lead against their compatriots, which allowed them to sit back and play on the break. On this occasion, as they trail by two goals from the first leg, such a tactic won’t suffice.

The way that Arsenal went away to Napoli in the previous round and nullified their hosts should worry Valencia. Unai Emery’s men held a two-goal advantage ahead of that second leg and they used it to their advantage, as they remained disciplined defensively before pouncing on the break.

In truth, this is a tricky game to assess. It will be the first time this season that Valencia have trailed going into the second leg and given that some of their home efforts have been weak when they’ve held an advantage, it’s not terribly difficult to envisage them struggling. Furthermore, Arsenal have lost two of their three travelling matches since reaching the knockouts, though each of those defeats came in the first leg. In contrast, once they held the lead ahead of going away to Napoli in the last round, Emery’s men were solid and delivered a professional performance.

On the basis that the Gunners thrived when in a similar position in Naples, it’s easy to feel that Thursday’s visitors have been slightly underestimated by the early market. At what appears to be a generous price, ‘Arsenal Draw No Bet’ gets the nod.