Valencia vs Atalanta Predictions

• Only 4/36 sides to have lost their first leg by 3+ goals have qualified for the next round of this competition.
• Atalanta have scored 2+ goals in their last three UCL games.
• The visitors have scored 24 goals across their last six matches.
• Valencia have conceded 2+ goals in five of their last seven games.

Can Valencia Come Back?

In the first leg, Atalanta became only the third team to score four goals in their first-ever Champions League knockout match, after Manchester United (4-0 v FC Porto in 1996-97) and opponents Valencia (5-2 v Lazio in 1999-00).

That incredible showing has set Valencia an almost impossible task in this second leg. Only four of the previous 36 teams to lose the first leg of a Champions League knockout tie by three or more goals have then progressed. Can Valencia equal that incredible feat this week?

Beginners’ Luck

Atalanta are out to match a record of their own this week, however. They could become the first Champions League debutants to reach the last eight of the competition since Leicester in 2016/17. But it’s Ajax who this Atalanta side have been compared to the most. They could match the Dutch side’s run to the last four in 2019, playing the same kind of fearless, attacking football.

There’s quite a contrast in their records of late. Since scoring with three of their last four shots against Lille in November, Valencia have scored with just four of their last 44 efforts at goal in the Champions League (9.1%).

Atalanta scored with six of their first 29 shots on target in the Champions League this season but have since found the net with six of their last eight, including their last four shots on target in their 4-1 win in the first leg. That’s seen them score twice in three straight matches in this competition.

High-scoring Dea

The visitors have been in great form domestically, as they are Serie A’s leading scorers. Their last league outing came a week-and-a-half ago, as they hammered Lecce 7-2, taking their total goals for the last six games up to 24. That’s also given them extra time to prepare for this trip. Meanwhile, Valencia have conceded twice in five of their last seven games.

Both Ajax and Chelsea scored at least twice here in the group stage, while Atalanta are growing in confidence by the week. They’ve really stepped up to make an impact in this competition. As a result, we’re backing them to score over 1.5 goals in this trip, following their standout scoring form.

Valencia are winless in nine Champions League knockout-stage matches (D5 L4) and haven’t scored three goals in a knockout game since winning 3-0 against Leeds United in May 2001. Combine that with Atalanta’s scoring touch and we don’t expect them to complete the unlikely turnaround. However, Atalanta have only won three of their 17 away major UEFA European games (D5 L9). We see the pair playing out an entertaining 2-2 draw.