Arsenal vs BATE Borisov Predictions

Things didn’t quite go to plan for Unai Emery’s Arsenal a week ago; despite starting the contest reasonably brightly, they were wasteful in front of goal, while they were once again poor at the back. Fortunately, they only have a one-goal deficit to overturn and have a second leg in front of a home crowd to make amends, though they’ll need to do better offensively if they’re to make it through.

Overall, it was a bad night for Arsenal in Belarus last Thursday, though if we look at their performance, then it’s fair to say that they were unlucky to lose. Make no mistake about it, the Gunners were well below their best, but even on a tough surface in a reasonably hostile environment, they offered more than their opponents in terms of both creativity and forward purpose. The fact that they emerged from the game with a +0.8 expected goal difference tells us that they deserved at least a draw.

Unai Emery’s men will have been disappointed to lose last week, but they’re unlikely to be feeling too downbeat ahead of this match. They know that BATE’s attacking threat is limited to breaking on the counter, while having created some decent openings away from home in the first leg, they’ll fancy themselves to offer a serious threat going forward in front of a home crowd. Having said that, while their first-leg efforts suggest that they can turn things around, it’s easy to feel that they’ll struggle to run away with the tie. During the groups, Arsenal averaged just 1.24 expected goals for at home, while they only scored more than once against a weak Vorskla side.

Fortunately for the Gunners, unlike in the Premier League, they gave very little away defensively when playing at home in the group stages of this competition, as they conceded in just one of their three games at the Emirates and gave up a very pleasing average of just 0.13 expected goals.

While Arsenal surprisingly allowed their opponents nothing more than a few scraps in front of goal at home during the groups, BATE struggled to get all that serious in the final third. Despite scoring away against both Vidi and Chelsea, they only recorded 0.52 and 0.57 expected goals for in those matches, which tells us that they created few opportunities and were lucky to notch. Add in the fact that they created little last week and it’s easy to see BATE faltering in the final third on Thursday.

If the visitors are to go through, then their best chance is to try and shut up shop. Having restricted Arsenal to just a few opportunities last week, the visitors may fancy themselves to keep things tight, but their efforts on the road against another London club in the groups suggest that they’ll come unstuck eventually. Thursday’s visitors conceded 1.74 goals when facing Chelsea away from home, so Arsenal ought to be capable of creating opportunities in this second leg.

Taking everything into account, the bet that stands out is ‘Arsenal to Win & Under 3.5 Goals’. On the balance of play, the visitors really ought to have come away with a narrow victory last week, but they can make up for failing to do that here. The visitors showed enough in the first leg to suggest that they can avoid a battering, but they lack quality, especially in the final third, while their previous away-day efforts in this competition show that they’re unlikely to hold out for 90 minutes.