Aston Villa vs Derby Predictions

Derby broke 30 years of tradition and the hearts of the Leeds faithful at Elland Road in the playoff semi-finals, winning 4-2 to overturn their first-leg defeat. It was the first time a Championship side won a playoff semi-final after losing the home leg, with the Rams going down 1-0 to Leeds at Pride Park days earlier. They take on Aston Villa in Monday’s playoff final at Wembley, following the Villains’ penalty shootout victory over West Brom. Can the Rams build on that thrilling win to claim promotion, or will Villa’s brilliant end to the season take them to the top flight?

Derby sit just 90 minutes away from the Premier League, despite only booking their playoff place on the final day. They had to beat West Brom 3-1 at Pride Park to secure sixth, following an inconsistent first year under Frank Lampard. The Derby manager is hoping to end his first campaign in the dugout with promotion, but he has to cross a familiar face to do it. Lampard squares off with former Chelsea teammate John Terry at Wembley, with the former England captain now assistant manager of Aston Villa.

Aston Villa’s promotion bid is built on two turnarounds, the first of which came when Dean Smith and Terry arrived at the club in October when Villa were 15th. They were instantly improved by the former Brentford boss, but a lull in early 2019 saw them slip back down the table. In the last couple of months of the season, Villa sparked a turnaround. Jack Grealish returned from injury, inspiring Villa to a 4-0 victory over Derby, which kicked off a 10-match winning streak that took them into the top five. With 11 wins and just two defeats since the start of March, Villa are the favourites to win at Wembley.

Villa are worthy favourites for success, having beaten Derby 7-0 on aggregate across their two meetings this term. Villa were clear winners in those clashes in terms of Expected Goals, as they had an xG of 2.2 in their clash at Villa Park, compared to Derby’s 0.14. The Rams’ xG came in less than one in the previous meeting, while Villa’s xG was 2.77. That could be crucial here, as playoff finals tend to be quite tight. The previous six have each seen under 2.5 goals scored.

Recent history also doesn’t favour the Rams in this clash. Not only have they been poor against Villa this term, but this is their eighth attempt at Premier League promotion through the playoffs, but they’ve only achieved it once – 12 years ago. In the last 13 seasons, only once has the sixth-placed finisher won the playoffs, while three of the last four finals have been won by the side who finished highest in the league. Villa come here with form, while they seem best placed to win this clash and claim promotion. We’re backing Villa to win in 90 minutes, while we’re also going with Villa and under 2.5 goals, given the low-scoring nature of playoff finals.

One man to watch here is Conor Hourihane, who scored a fantastic goal against West Brom in the first leg of their semi-final. He has eight goals from midfield this term, 25% of which came against Derby. The Irishman scored in the home and away victories over the Rams, so we think he’s great value to score at Wembley.