Benfica vs Eintracht Frankfurt Predictions

Benfica did eventually make it through to the quarter-finals, though they made hard work of seeing off a determined Dinamo Zagreb side. Having been forced into extra-time by the Croats, Thursday’s Portuguese hosts may find it tough against a Frankfurt side that proved just how good they are when beating Inter Milan at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in the last-16.

Since dropping out of the Champions League, Benfica, who reached the final of this competition in both 2013 and 2014, have underwhelmed. They are of course in the last eight, though their efforts haven’t exactly been impressive. They edged past Galatasaray in the last-16, failing to score in front of a home crowd, while they required an extra 30 minutes to see off Dinamo Zagreb in the previous round.

Going forward, Benfica have looked somewhat tame since dropping out of the UCL, especially on their own patch. They failed to score when hosting Galatasaray in the last-16, while they only notched once before extra-time against Zagreb last time out in this competition. Moreover, their creativity numbers have been poor, as they posted 0.91 expected goals for against Galatasaray and just 1.14 in 130 minutes in the previous round. Such numbers don’t exactly point towards home goals on Thursday.

Fortunately, Benfica have defended very well in front of a home crowd. In fact, they’ve done an excellent job of preventing their opponents from creating, as they’ve surrendered just 0.22 and 0.74 expected goals in their two home UEL home matches this season. Those two matches combined saw Thursday’s hosts give away a total of just four shots on target, which is a big part of why they’re yet to concede a goal on home soil.

Unlike the hosts, Frankfurt have scored plenty of goals in the Europa League this season, especially away from home. However, their underlying numbers would suggest that they’ve been a tad fortunate to score as many as they have. Adi Hutter’s men have scored an impressive average of two goals per away match, but they’re averaging 1.39 expected goals for, which isn’t as impressive. To breach a very strong Benfica side, they may need to offer more in terms of creativity.

Defensively, in terms of chances given away on the road, Frankfurt haven’t presented their opponents too much, despite what several of their results would have us believe. Thursday’s visitors have conceded an average of 1.22 expected goals on their travels, while they’ve surrendered numbers of just 0.7 and 1.3 since the beginning of the knockout rounds.

On the face of it, this may appear to be a game where goals are guaranteed; in their respective division, neither Frankfurt nor Benfica are shy in coming forward, though when we take a closer look at their underlying numbers in this competition, ‘Under 2.5 Goals’ stands out as a bet that represents value at the current prices. With the hosts posting poor attacking numbers at home and neither giving a great deal away in their respective home and away games, a bet on a low-scoring game makes plenty of appeal.