Derby vs Leeds Predictions

• Derby have failed to win against any top-six side this season
• The Rams have lost to three of the top six in each of their last three games
• Leeds have won four of their last five away games
• Derby have failed to beat Leeds in four meetings outside of the playoffs

A poetic finish for Leeds

In Marcelo Bielsa’s two years at Leeds, Derby have played a significant role in his bid to win promotion. The Spygate drama of last season cast a long shadow, reaching to their playoff semi-final clash with the Rams. Their second-leg collapse at Elland Road saw Frank Lampard’s Derby progress to Wembley, extending Leeds’ wait for the Premier League.

Now Leeds only need one point to guarantee their return to the highest level in English football. Their 16-year wait could come to an end this weekend, when they visit Derby. Could it be the Rams who hurt Leeds once again? Or will this be the perfect end to Bielsa’s rivalry with the team from Pride Park? Our predictions point to Leeds making history here.

Derby’s collapse blows playoff return

While Leeds are fighting for the Premier League, Derby are no longer in the mix. Their hopes of securing sixth place and making another playoff push have been dashed of late, as they lost 2-1 to Cardiff in midweek to fall six points shy of the top six. That blow to Phillip Cocu’s side came after they had the best form in 2020, until familiar problems arose for them.

Despite adding the talent and experience of Wayne Rooney, Derby still can’t cut it against the best in the division. This season Derby have failed to win any of their 11 meetings with the top six, with this their final chance of doing so. They’ve passed up plenty of chances in recent weeks, but coming up short against promotino hopefuls has let them down.

The Rams were lucky to get a point against Forest in their derby clash, the start of a four-game winless run for the Rams which all came against sides in the top-six. Derby have lost each of their last three, going down to West Brom, Brentford and Cardiff. Now they need to end that poor run against the league leaders.

Visitors have too much for Rams

With Leeds focused on getting over the line, we expect them to have too much quality for Derby this weekend. They come into this clash on form, having picked up their record away from home. Leeds United have won four of their last five Championship away games (L1), as many as they had won on their last 13 matches on the road.

Leeds have won five of their last six in the Championship, form which has carried them towards the title. Meanwhile, they have the edge over the Rams in regular season meetings, as excluding playoffs, Derby haven’t beaten Leeds in any of their last four league meetings (D2 L2) since a 2-1 victory at Elland Road in October 2017.

We are backing Leeds for the points, given how poor Derby have looked against quality opposition. On top of that, a 2-1 away win is our correct score prediction. The visitors have conceded in all but one of their visits to sides in the top 10 this seaon, while Derby have scored in 91% of their home games, so both teams should score.