Liverpool vs Barcelona Predictions

After their heavy defeat on Wednesday night, Liverpool have a mountain to climb in their second-leg meeting with Barcelona this week. The Reds need to repeat Roma’s incredible heroics from 2018 when they roared back from a 4-1 loss at Barca to knock them out in last season’s quarter-finals. The Italians went on to the next round, losing to Liverpool as they raced to the final in Kyiv. Can the Reds repeat that run, or are we going to see another La Liga winner in the Champions League?

While Liverpool have a huge margin to turnaround, their performance in the first leg was better than the result suggested. Jurgen Klopp called the display their best on the road in Europe in the last two years. That comment didn’t go down too well, but it was a good display which came after years of struggles away from home in this competition. There were at least positives to take from that loss, but the lack of an away goal is a huge blow. They should find things slightly easier with a roaring Anfield support behind them.

Barcelona have won just five of their last 18 away Champions League knockout ties (W5 D4 L9). They haven’t lost on the road this term in the competition, but there have been underwhelming results at Inter and Lyon. Their last defeat was that loss to Roma last year, while the Catalans are fighting against history to claim a win in this trip. Barcelona have won two away Champions League games in England this season, winning 4-2 at Spurs and 1-0 at Manchester United – no side has ever won three away games in England in a major European competition in a single season.

Liverpool are unbeaten in 19 home matches in all competitions (W16 D3 L0), only enjoying a longer run once under Jürgen Klopp – a run of 25 between January 2016 and January 2017. They have won their last six on the spin, scoring 20 in that time. They’ve won 16 of their 18 league games at Anfield, while they’ve won six of their last seven at home in the Champions League. The Reds also have a lot of European pedigree backing them up here. In all European competition, Liverpool have only lost one of their 18 home semi-finals at Anfield (W14 D3 L1), losing 0-1 against Leeds United in the 1970-71 Fairs Cup.

Liverpool’s home record does suggest they’ll do well here, especially against a Barca side who have won just four of their last 12 trips in this competition. The hosts showed that they can match Barca during periods of the first leg, while home advantage should spur on Liverpool. We think that the hosts are well priced as they look to make a comeback. While we see the hosts falling short of Roma’s heroics last year, we’re backing them for a win. A home victory and a 2-1 final score are our picks for this clash.

Lionel Messi has 12 Champions League goals for Barcelona this season, just two shy of his best ever tally in a single season, scoring 14 in 2011-12; the Argentinian has netted more goals against English teams than any other player in the competition’s history (26), including six this season. His second against the Reds was his 600th club goal, while he is closing in on more European history. In the first leg, Liverpool became the 32nd different Champions League opponent Barcelona’s Lionel Messi has scored against, one shy of the record. While he can’t break that this term, he can add to his impressive tally here. He has scored 15 times in his last 12 matches, so we’re backing Messi to score and fire the Catalans towards the final.